While the bulk of this article will be about recent Iranian moves, we will start with Israel. When it was leaked to the press that Israeli PM Netanyahu confronted the Russians with a list of scientists helping the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon a small but important statement was overlooked. In the article former assistant defense minister Ephraim Sneh stated that, “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike – if we are left alone, we will act alone.” This is an interesting, and yet strange statement because, if true, it could serve to undermine the element of surprise necessary for an attack to be carried out. It appears that statement was made not to warn of an impending strike, but rather to force the U.S. to push harder for sanctions.
Dr. Ephraim Sneh is a career politician who currently does not hold any official office or position within the current government which begs the question, why would Sneh be the one to issue such a forceful statement? The best reason for this may be because Sneh is not a part of the current government. This would allow the Israelis to issue a threat with deniability; after all Israel is a small country and politicians still retain certain power even if they do not hold an official position. Furthermore, the target of this statement may not be Iran, but rather the U.S. Israel was promised that if diplomacy failed the U.S. would lead the charge to implement crippling sanctions against Iran, or more precisely, sanctions against Iranian gasoline imports. Currently, Iran is a net importer of gasoline because the country lacks the refining capability needed to convert domestically produced crude oil into commercial gasoline.
But there is a severe problem with this plan. The UN Security Council would have to vote unanimously to implement sanctions that would work. Two permanent members, Russia and China, have already stated they would vote against such a measure. The U.S. and Europe could implement the sanctions unilaterally, but Russia could singlehandedly provide Iran with all the gasoline it needs very easily making unilateral sanctions useless. It would appear that if the current attempts at diplomacy fail, an Israeli strike would be inevitable.
This may serve to explain current Iranian activities. Recently, Iran trained 250 Hezbollah paramilitary members on several missile systems in the event of war with Israel. These missiles have a longer range and should be able to strike most cities in the Jewish state. Making matters worse is a report from the Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida which states that Syria recently moved one quarter of its medium and long range missile arsenal to Lebanon. Coming on the heels of all of this is the Iranian incursion into Iraq which clearly shows that Iran will not wait around to be hit militarily or by sanctions. Iran is very publically moving to a war footing.
Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran have not publicly given any clear indication as to what would force armed conflict, but what is known is that diplomacy is failing rapidly. The December 25 date may be political theater, but then again with Iran preparing for war Israel may be forced to act sooner rather than later. These activities only serve to leave the U.S. in the cold and at the mercy of other nations to determine when and where a conflict will occur. Whatever the outcome neither bodes well for any country involved.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Somali Connection
"We judge the terrorist threat to US interests in East Africa, primarily from Al Qaida and Al Qaida-affiliated Islamic extremists in Somalia and Kenya, will increase in the next year as Al Qaida's East Africa network continues to plot operations against U.S., Western, and local targets and the influence of the Somalia-based terrorist group Al Shabaab grows. Given the high-profile U.S. role in the region and its perceived direction-in the minds of Al Qaida and local extremists-of foreign intervention in Somalia, we assess U.S. counterterrorism efforts will be challenged not only by the Al Qaida operatives in the Horn, but also by Somali extremists and increasing numbers of foreign fighters supporting Al Shabaab's efforts."
National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009
Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.
Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.
Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.
National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009
Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.
Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.
Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line
The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.
In a recent address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Obama stated that U.S. intelligence had been monitoring the construction of another uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom, Iran. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the existence of this nuclear facility was known as far back as 2006 – one year before the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate upon which my previous analysis was based. The construction of an enrichment facility on a military installation hardly fits into a civil nuclear program and is not an occurrence that one could easily over look when drafting an NIE. The bottom line is that the crisis over the Iranian nuclear weapons was not resolved, but simply put on hold because the U.S. needed Iranian cooperation in Iraq.
It is now two years later and the crisis has once again come to the forefront with all trends and indicators pointing towards war with Iran. Although the Iranians have agreed to allow inspections of the new facility by the IAEA, it is unlikely that anything substantial will result. In fact, the inspections are completely meaningless because uranium can go through the enrichment process at different facilities and leave the inspectors chasing ghosts and rumors. But a nuclear weapons program is far more complex than creating the needed nuclear fuel. The real aspects of the program lay within experimentation with the simultaneous detonation of precisely manufactured conventional explosives. These explosives, commonly known as a shaped charged, are arranged around the outside of the nuclear material in a pattern that resembles a soccer ball. Creating and manufacturing these materials are by far the most difficult aspect of any nuclear weapons program, not to mention the full scale assembly and production of a nuclear device.
Iran, with a little help from several Russian scientists (this information was recently leaked by Israeli intelligence – they know the Russians by name and claim they were sent by the Russian government), seems to have overcome these obstacles. The Associated Press recently disclosed information from a classified IAEA document which stated the following:
• The IAEA's assessment that Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload "that is quite likely to be nuclear."
• That Iran engaged in "probable testing" of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead — a method known as a "full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system."
• An assessment that Iran worked on developing a system "for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge" of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.
• The agency ... assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel.
With this information it does indeed appear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and this poses a serious problem – the west, a majority of Arab nations, and perhaps the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel do not want this to happen. In the face of such opposition one would think Iran would abandon such a program to avoid isolation, but Tehran currently has Russian and Chinese backing – at least for now. Additionally, the Iranians, along with the Russians, view Obama as a weak president who will not use military force to destroy their nuclear facilities. Tehran also believes that the Israelis do not have the military capability of striking and destroying their dispersed nuclear program. In essence, the Iranians believe, albeit wrongly, that they can pursue a nuclear weapons program unencumbered.
Israel has stated that they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but the red line that Iran would have to cross before the Israelis took action is unknown. Israel does have some military options to target the known fixed locations of the nuclear program, but none of these are very promising. Unfortunately, these options would only delay the Iranian program and not destroy it. Knowing full well the limitations of its military power it is unlikely that Israel will be dissuaded from taking action. Many attribute Israel’s heavy reliance on military power to memories of the holocaust, while this may be accurate up to a point it does little to explain the nature of the Israeli state. Israel is a small, densely populated country which means that the Jewish nation lacks strategic depth. Any large sustained conventional attack against the country would be devastating meaning that escalation to a nuclear exchange with another country is unthinkable.
While we may not know at what point an attack against the Iranian nuclear sites will occur we can be sure that Iran will respond. The Iranian military is not very sophisticated nor is it able to project force beyond Iran’s borders, but Tehran has other tools at its disposal. First and foremost is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is a special military force charged with protecting the revolution and supporting the clerical regime. Most notably however, is the training that the IRGC gives to terrorist groups worldwide. By training and funding global terrorism Iran is able to strike at its enemies worldwide as evidenced by attacks as far away as Europe and South America. Perhaps the most notable of Iranian terrorist proxies is the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in terrorist and conventional fighting against Israel. It is highly likely that Hezbollah would be used in the first response to an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran could also use its missile arsenal with conventional warheads to strike directly at Israel, but these missiles have been unreliable and may not be able to penetrate Israel’s missile defense system. In an act of defiance or desperation Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz; an act that would affect 40% of the world’s oil supply. While the Iranians believe that Obama is a weak president such an act in the middle of a tepid global economic recovery would force the U.S. to respond militarily to open the Strait, thus leading to a wider war. These are the current trends, none of which will lead to a desirable conclusion.
In a recent address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Obama stated that U.S. intelligence had been monitoring the construction of another uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom, Iran. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the existence of this nuclear facility was known as far back as 2006 – one year before the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate upon which my previous analysis was based. The construction of an enrichment facility on a military installation hardly fits into a civil nuclear program and is not an occurrence that one could easily over look when drafting an NIE. The bottom line is that the crisis over the Iranian nuclear weapons was not resolved, but simply put on hold because the U.S. needed Iranian cooperation in Iraq.
It is now two years later and the crisis has once again come to the forefront with all trends and indicators pointing towards war with Iran. Although the Iranians have agreed to allow inspections of the new facility by the IAEA, it is unlikely that anything substantial will result. In fact, the inspections are completely meaningless because uranium can go through the enrichment process at different facilities and leave the inspectors chasing ghosts and rumors. But a nuclear weapons program is far more complex than creating the needed nuclear fuel. The real aspects of the program lay within experimentation with the simultaneous detonation of precisely manufactured conventional explosives. These explosives, commonly known as a shaped charged, are arranged around the outside of the nuclear material in a pattern that resembles a soccer ball. Creating and manufacturing these materials are by far the most difficult aspect of any nuclear weapons program, not to mention the full scale assembly and production of a nuclear device.
Iran, with a little help from several Russian scientists (this information was recently leaked by Israeli intelligence – they know the Russians by name and claim they were sent by the Russian government), seems to have overcome these obstacles. The Associated Press recently disclosed information from a classified IAEA document which stated the following:
• The IAEA's assessment that Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload "that is quite likely to be nuclear."
• That Iran engaged in "probable testing" of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead — a method known as a "full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system."
• An assessment that Iran worked on developing a system "for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge" of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.
• The agency ... assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel.
With this information it does indeed appear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and this poses a serious problem – the west, a majority of Arab nations, and perhaps the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel do not want this to happen. In the face of such opposition one would think Iran would abandon such a program to avoid isolation, but Tehran currently has Russian and Chinese backing – at least for now. Additionally, the Iranians, along with the Russians, view Obama as a weak president who will not use military force to destroy their nuclear facilities. Tehran also believes that the Israelis do not have the military capability of striking and destroying their dispersed nuclear program. In essence, the Iranians believe, albeit wrongly, that they can pursue a nuclear weapons program unencumbered.
Israel has stated that they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but the red line that Iran would have to cross before the Israelis took action is unknown. Israel does have some military options to target the known fixed locations of the nuclear program, but none of these are very promising. Unfortunately, these options would only delay the Iranian program and not destroy it. Knowing full well the limitations of its military power it is unlikely that Israel will be dissuaded from taking action. Many attribute Israel’s heavy reliance on military power to memories of the holocaust, while this may be accurate up to a point it does little to explain the nature of the Israeli state. Israel is a small, densely populated country which means that the Jewish nation lacks strategic depth. Any large sustained conventional attack against the country would be devastating meaning that escalation to a nuclear exchange with another country is unthinkable.
While we may not know at what point an attack against the Iranian nuclear sites will occur we can be sure that Iran will respond. The Iranian military is not very sophisticated nor is it able to project force beyond Iran’s borders, but Tehran has other tools at its disposal. First and foremost is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is a special military force charged with protecting the revolution and supporting the clerical regime. Most notably however, is the training that the IRGC gives to terrorist groups worldwide. By training and funding global terrorism Iran is able to strike at its enemies worldwide as evidenced by attacks as far away as Europe and South America. Perhaps the most notable of Iranian terrorist proxies is the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in terrorist and conventional fighting against Israel. It is highly likely that Hezbollah would be used in the first response to an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran could also use its missile arsenal with conventional warheads to strike directly at Israel, but these missiles have been unreliable and may not be able to penetrate Israel’s missile defense system. In an act of defiance or desperation Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz; an act that would affect 40% of the world’s oil supply. While the Iranians believe that Obama is a weak president such an act in the middle of a tepid global economic recovery would force the U.S. to respond militarily to open the Strait, thus leading to a wider war. These are the current trends, none of which will lead to a desirable conclusion.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Foiled Terror Plots and the Bigger Picture
In the last 24 hours the law enforcement community has made several arrests, and at this point, disrupted three seemingly independent terrorist plots. The U.S. media has been closely following the Denver-New York plot which resulted in the suspect, Najibullah Zazi, being indicted for conspiring to attack the U.S. with a weapon of mass destruction. Details of the plot thus far include:
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.
It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:
Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.
Zazi and others made repeat purchases over the last three months of "large quantities of hydrogen peroxide and acetone products from beauty supply stores in the Denver metropolitan area." This is used to make an explosive known as TATP.
Court documents do not identify any conspirators or targets and shed no light on the scale of Zazi’s intended plot. But, evidence adds to the suspicion that Zazi and his partners were working on developing portable bombs for use against multiple targets.
Investigators searched for up to two dozen suspects and a possible cache of explosive materials in a possible al-Qaeda plot to set off hydrogen-peroxide bombs hidden in backpacks. The FBI said “several individuals in the United States, Pakistan and elsewhere” are being investigated. “
When police on September 14 searched an apartment in Queens that Zazi had visited, they confiscated cell phones and at least nine empty backpacks. The Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people involved backpacks stuffed with explosives that were detonated via cell phones.
Federal counterterrorism officials issued terrorism bulletins which urged law enforcement and private companies to be vigilant at stadiums, entertainment complexes, transit systems and hotels.
Police are being told to watch for any large quantities of hydrogen peroxide, drain cleaner, acetone, or nail polish remover various types of acids and large quantities of ammonia nitrate or urea fertilizer.
It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:
Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, a 19-year-old Jordanian citizen, was arrested by federal authorities who say that Smadi placed an inactive car bomb today at Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper in downtown Dallas.
Michael Finton, also known as Talib Islam, was arrested in Springfield, Illinois, and charged with attempted murder of federal officers or employees and trying to use a weapon of mass destruction, charges that carry a life sentence.
Additionally, two men were arrested last month for attempting to attack a Marine base in North Carolina.
Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.
Monday, September 14, 2009
A U.S. Raid in Somalia
As of this morning both Reuters and the Associated Press are reporting that a small foreign military force launched an attack on militants in the southern Somali city of Baraawe. Current details are sketchy, but the most recent news states that two helicopters originating from an unknown naval ship opened fire on a car killing two and wounding two. Local residents stated that the two wounded men were loaded aboard the aircraft and flown back out to sea. Several sources are also claiming that one of the militants killed was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002.
Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.
Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.
Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.
CIA Map, Text in red is mine
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan
National Geographic Magazine insert
Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.
Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.
Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.
CIA Map, Text in red is mine
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan
National Geographic Magazine insert
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Hezbollah has Chemical Weapons? Not So Fast
The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyasa reported on September 3 that an explosion in southern Lebanon that occurred on July 14, 2009 was a Hezbollah arms depot. Seemingly giving credence to this claim is four days after the explosion the UN observer force trying access the site was blocked by a mob of protesters who then attacked the UN representatives. What made this report stand out was not the fact that the arms depot was a violation of UN Resolution 1701, but the claim that the depot contained chemical weapons.
In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:
Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.
Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.
We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.
In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:
Syrian defence sources told Jane's that during a 26 July (2007) test to weaponise a 500 km 'Scud C' with a mustard gas warhead, an explosion occurred in a laboratory adjacent to a chemical agent storage facility located in a Syrian military camp in Aleppo. The explosion killed 15 Syrian military personnel and "dozens" of Iranian missile weaponisation engineers, the sources said.
"The blast dispersed chemical agents (including VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent) across the storage facility and outside. Other Iranian engineers were seriously injured with chemical burns to exposed body parts not protected by safety overalls."
Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.
Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.
We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Death of Baitullah Mehsud
The death of Baitullah Mehsud has finally been confirmed by the Pakistani Taliban (the Pakistani Taliban is also known by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP). This comes almost a month after the CIA struck Baitullah’s father in law’s compound killing the militant leader and one of his wives. Initially, the U.S. refrained from admitting the target and confirming Baitullah’s death, but the Pakistanis did not possess such qualms. For their part, the TTP continued to claim that Baitullah was not killed in the attack, but was instead ill. Furthermore the Pakistanis were claiming that his death resulted in a shootout during a shura meeting where discussions over Baitullah’s replacement were taking place. It was in the midst of these claims and counter claims that prevented more timely analysis.
What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.
While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.
Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.
*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.
Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.
Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.
What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.
While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.
Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.
*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.
Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.
Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
The Great Unraveling – The Muslim World Looks Inward
This is the third in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
The Muslim World is hardly a homogeneous thing, but several issues do grab the attention of Muslims in the Middle East not the least of which is Israel. Foolishly many believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring peace to the Middle East all the while ignoring divisions in Islam and cultural differences between the Arabs, Persians, Kurds, and Turks. This is an ignorance born out of obsession by the West with solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a means of atoning for the UN mandate that created the Jewish state. Perhaps a more pressing conflict, one that will lead to an arms race if not an a larger conflict, is the ongoing feud between the Arabs and the Persians who also happen to largely fall along the Islamic division of Sunni and Shiites with the majority of Arabs adhering to the former and the Persians the latter. In recent times, the current protests in Tehran aside, Iran has been pushing its influence to the far corners of the Middle East while the fractured Arab states strive to counter these moves.
It has become increasingly difficult to discuss Iran without discussing the nuclear program. While Iran has been moving forward in building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium, it must be remembered that this doesn’t automatically translate into a deliverable nuclear warhead. Regardless, both the Arab regimes and the Israelis are not going to wait for Iran to get that far and will take extraordinary measures to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear armed power. These actions currently include the Saudis and Israelis sharing intelligence and assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists. This cooperation challenges the common belief, but Saudi Arabia has its largest Shiite population living in the oil rich eastern desert and Riyadh views this as a weakness within the kingdom. Israel on the other hand fears Iranian weapons and technology being put in the hands of Hezbollah. The Arabs and the Israelis are using intelligence to fight Tehran while Iran fights back by supporting the rogues. The players have shifted alliances, but the game remains the same.
In the midst of the regional maneuvering is the buildup of conventional military forces. The Gulf States having been buying military hardware such as fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems from the United States in preparation for a more aggressive Iran. While these systems may make the Royal families sleep better at night the geography and internal affairs of the Iranian state do not necessarily allow Tehran to pursue foreign matters of the state via conventional military means. Instead Iran has relied primarily on supporting terrorism and spreading the Iranian revolution through Shiite proselytizing throughout the Middle East. This has given the Iranians a bit of street credit among ordinary Muslims regardless of which sect of Islam they belong too. For several decades many Arab nations have spoken about the virtues of jihad while the Iranians are actually acting on the premise. This has severely undermined the Arab nations and their struggle against one another for leadership of Islam hasn’t helped matters either.
In this fight for control of the Muslim conscience it may seem that Iran is on the march, but the Arab states are not without tools of their own – namely Saudi Arabia’s money. The Saudis oil reserves are so vast that when the need strikes the kingdom can raise or undercut oil prices overnight. For nations such as Iran that are dependent on high oil prices Riyadh’s actions can have a devastating effect. This approach has proven more reliable for the Saudi’s then when the support of terrorism in the region was their status quo. This will be a delicate dance between the Arabs and Persians for a little while longer but things will heat up quickly. Most of this fight will be planned in the shadows forcing analysis to be rather general. What we do know is that the Muslim world will do what it does best; turn inward and fight each other.
The Muslim World is hardly a homogeneous thing, but several issues do grab the attention of Muslims in the Middle East not the least of which is Israel. Foolishly many believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring peace to the Middle East all the while ignoring divisions in Islam and cultural differences between the Arabs, Persians, Kurds, and Turks. This is an ignorance born out of obsession by the West with solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a means of atoning for the UN mandate that created the Jewish state. Perhaps a more pressing conflict, one that will lead to an arms race if not an a larger conflict, is the ongoing feud between the Arabs and the Persians who also happen to largely fall along the Islamic division of Sunni and Shiites with the majority of Arabs adhering to the former and the Persians the latter. In recent times, the current protests in Tehran aside, Iran has been pushing its influence to the far corners of the Middle East while the fractured Arab states strive to counter these moves.
It has become increasingly difficult to discuss Iran without discussing the nuclear program. While Iran has been moving forward in building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium, it must be remembered that this doesn’t automatically translate into a deliverable nuclear warhead. Regardless, both the Arab regimes and the Israelis are not going to wait for Iran to get that far and will take extraordinary measures to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear armed power. These actions currently include the Saudis and Israelis sharing intelligence and assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists. This cooperation challenges the common belief, but Saudi Arabia has its largest Shiite population living in the oil rich eastern desert and Riyadh views this as a weakness within the kingdom. Israel on the other hand fears Iranian weapons and technology being put in the hands of Hezbollah. The Arabs and the Israelis are using intelligence to fight Tehran while Iran fights back by supporting the rogues. The players have shifted alliances, but the game remains the same.
In the midst of the regional maneuvering is the buildup of conventional military forces. The Gulf States having been buying military hardware such as fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems from the United States in preparation for a more aggressive Iran. While these systems may make the Royal families sleep better at night the geography and internal affairs of the Iranian state do not necessarily allow Tehran to pursue foreign matters of the state via conventional military means. Instead Iran has relied primarily on supporting terrorism and spreading the Iranian revolution through Shiite proselytizing throughout the Middle East. This has given the Iranians a bit of street credit among ordinary Muslims regardless of which sect of Islam they belong too. For several decades many Arab nations have spoken about the virtues of jihad while the Iranians are actually acting on the premise. This has severely undermined the Arab nations and their struggle against one another for leadership of Islam hasn’t helped matters either.
In this fight for control of the Muslim conscience it may seem that Iran is on the march, but the Arab states are not without tools of their own – namely Saudi Arabia’s money. The Saudis oil reserves are so vast that when the need strikes the kingdom can raise or undercut oil prices overnight. For nations such as Iran that are dependent on high oil prices Riyadh’s actions can have a devastating effect. This approach has proven more reliable for the Saudi’s then when the support of terrorism in the region was their status quo. This will be a delicate dance between the Arabs and Persians for a little while longer but things will heat up quickly. Most of this fight will be planned in the shadows forcing analysis to be rather general. What we do know is that the Muslim world will do what it does best; turn inward and fight each other.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The Great Unraveling – A New Alliance in the East
This is the second in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.
With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.
It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.
This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.
Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.
In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.
Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.
With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.
It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.
This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.
Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.
In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.
Monday, June 15, 2009
The Great Unraveling - Rise of the Rouges
This is the first in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.
The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.
With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.
In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.
Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.
The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.
With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.
In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dr. Tiller and the Lone Wolf
It was bound to happen sooner or later, but a little over a week ago Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in his church parking lot shortly after the service. Tiller was shot because he was one of a handful of physicians that performed a procedure popularly known as partial birth abortion. This wasn’t the first time Tiller was attacked; in fact, Shelley Shannon managed to shoot Tiller in both arms in 1993 outside of his clinic. Understanding that Tiller was a target doesn’t make the killers actions right, but merely serves to show that physicians that perform abortions are still targets.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
GWOT and Memorial Day
How best to honor those men and women who have given the ultimate sacrifice? As a veteran I have struggled with this ever since I left the military just over two years ago because of a back injury. Many of those with whom I served and befriended are still fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and some areas of Africa. Memorial Day is especially hard. This day has been set aside to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. These individuals fought for the people beside them and will never have the opportunity to return home and embrace their loved ones. This realization is particularly difficult for those that are left behind to carry on the fight.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
Monday, May 18, 2009
When the Tigers Died
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." – Albert Einstein
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Urgent: Petraeus States that the next two weeks are critical to Pakistan’s survival
During a briefing with U.S. administration officials, General David Petraeus stated the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Hezbollah in the Sinai
Egyptian security forces have arrested 26 people that may have been a part of a Hezbollah cell in the Sinai Peninsula placed to launch terrorist attacks against tourists and smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The Egyptian government claims that this is only half of the cell and continues security operations in an attempt to apprehend the rest of the group. Hassan Nasrallah – Hezbollah Secretary General – claimed that the cell only numbered ten and was put in place for the sole purpose of smuggling weapons into Gaza. This situation, while meant to boost Hezbollah’s standing prior to Lebanese election and in the Arab world at large, could have the opposite effect. Egypt has seen itself as the leader of the Arab world since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and is looking to reassert itself in the Arab world and stop the spread of Iran’s influence. Right now Tehran’s militant proxy is in the sights of Cairo.
During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.
As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.
This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.
Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.
Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.
Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.
During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.
As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.
This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.
Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.
Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.
Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Binghamton Massacre and the need for an Active Shooter Program
In the last several weeks lone gunman have struck in Oakland, Pittsburg and Binghamton, NY. All of these attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.
The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” Furthermore DHS states:
It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or other, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places – for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same, so if anybody out there has any questions or would like help developing a plan please contact me. The following links have good information regarding the development of an active shooter program.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters
Training Book
Pocket Guide
Poster
Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan. This plan is one of the best templates I've seen for emergency planning for schools.
The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” Furthermore DHS states:
Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.
It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or other, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places – for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same, so if anybody out there has any questions or would like help developing a plan please contact me. The following links have good information regarding the development of an active shooter program.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters
Training Book
Pocket Guide
Poster
Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan. This plan is one of the best templates I've seen for emergency planning for schools.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Yemen Terror Plot Foiled
Earlier I made reference to the possibility of renewed terrorist activity in the Arabian Peninsula because of the merger between the al-Qaeda affiliates in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The release of a new most wanted list from Saudi Arabia and subsequent release of an Interpol orange notice for these men led me to believe that terrorist activity in Saudi Arabia or Yemen was imminent. It now turns out that this was indeed the case.
Reading media reports from Middle East outlets is akin to watching a monkey try to swallow a hand grenade – you know its going to be ugly, but you can’t look away. This was certainly the case on February 17. According to press reports, Yemeni authorities claimed to have disrupted a terrorist plot to destroy oil fields and tourist spots by the newly resurrected al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the media also reported that former Guantanamo Bay inmate Mohammed al-Awfi, aka Abu Harith, surrendered to Yemeni authorities two weeks after issuing a video tape claiming he had rejoined al-Qaeda.
Al-Awfi’s surrender is rather curious. First, the man leaves Saudi Arabia to rejoin al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula after his release from Guantanamo and the Saudi deradicalization program, and second he surrenders a mere two weeks after having rejoined al-Qaeda. This action begs the question, did al-Awfi’s surrender lead to the disruption of the plot or did he surrender because of its discovery?
It is possible that al-Awfi was planted by Saudi intelligence upon receiving intel that al-Qaeda was attempting a comeback in Riyadh’s backyard. In fact, Yemeni foreign minister Aby Bakr al-Qirbi publicly stated that al-Qaeda was under control in Yemen. Al-Qirbi would further state that al-Qaeda was, “under security control and censorship” leading one to believe that al-Awfi’s surrender was indeed part of a plan to infiltrate al-Qaeda.
When discussing Yemen it is important to understand that the government has used jihadists in the past to adversaries of the ruing regime. In this case, long time President Ali Abdullah Saleh has used jihadists to target his adversaries in the al-Zaydi tribe in Northern Yemen. What may have happened in this case is the government of Yemen grew worried since the militants that they (sometimes) employ were planning on targeting the lifeblood of Yemen - oil. Regardless of the surrender of a top militant the dynamics of the Arabian Peninsula remain the same. Thus far the Saudis have only brought seven of their list of 85 home. What we have seen in the past month is only the tip of the iceberg.
Reading media reports from Middle East outlets is akin to watching a monkey try to swallow a hand grenade – you know its going to be ugly, but you can’t look away. This was certainly the case on February 17. According to press reports, Yemeni authorities claimed to have disrupted a terrorist plot to destroy oil fields and tourist spots by the newly resurrected al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the media also reported that former Guantanamo Bay inmate Mohammed al-Awfi, aka Abu Harith, surrendered to Yemeni authorities two weeks after issuing a video tape claiming he had rejoined al-Qaeda.
Al-Awfi’s surrender is rather curious. First, the man leaves Saudi Arabia to rejoin al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula after his release from Guantanamo and the Saudi deradicalization program, and second he surrenders a mere two weeks after having rejoined al-Qaeda. This action begs the question, did al-Awfi’s surrender lead to the disruption of the plot or did he surrender because of its discovery?
It is possible that al-Awfi was planted by Saudi intelligence upon receiving intel that al-Qaeda was attempting a comeback in Riyadh’s backyard. In fact, Yemeni foreign minister Aby Bakr al-Qirbi publicly stated that al-Qaeda was under control in Yemen. Al-Qirbi would further state that al-Qaeda was, “under security control and censorship” leading one to believe that al-Awfi’s surrender was indeed part of a plan to infiltrate al-Qaeda.
When discussing Yemen it is important to understand that the government has used jihadists in the past to adversaries of the ruing regime. In this case, long time President Ali Abdullah Saleh has used jihadists to target his adversaries in the al-Zaydi tribe in Northern Yemen. What may have happened in this case is the government of Yemen grew worried since the militants that they (sometimes) employ were planning on targeting the lifeblood of Yemen - oil. Regardless of the surrender of a top militant the dynamics of the Arabian Peninsula remain the same. Thus far the Saudis have only brought seven of their list of 85 home. What we have seen in the past month is only the tip of the iceberg.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Urgent: Something is cooking in Riyadh
On February 3, 2009, Saudi Arabia issued a list of 83 individuals wanted for terrorist activities. This was followed by Interpol issuing an orange notice for these individuals on February 10th. This is an unprecedented security alert and should be taken quite seriously. It is not typical for a nation to issue a list of 83 wanted individuals all at once unless Riyadh has intelligence that a terrorist attack is imminent. It appears as if the Kingdom issued this list because the intelligence they possess is sketchy, yet reliable, and the Saudis are hoping to get lucky by nabbing a few of these individuals and gleaning more actionable intelligence.
Back in April of 2008 I warned that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula would work with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen in an attempt to move weapons and personnel across the border for future terrorist attacks when the opportunity presented itself. The recent news of two former Guantanamo inmates rejoining al-Qaeda in Yemen coming on the heels of all this activity cannot be coincidental. It’s time we all watch Saudi Arabia very closely in the coming days and weeks.
Back in April of 2008 I warned that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula would work with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen in an attempt to move weapons and personnel across the border for future terrorist attacks when the opportunity presented itself. The recent news of two former Guantanamo inmates rejoining al-Qaeda in Yemen coming on the heels of all this activity cannot be coincidental. It’s time we all watch Saudi Arabia very closely in the coming days and weeks.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
2009: Predictions and Possibilities
The following is based upon trends that are I expect to take place in the coming year. I will discuss possible outcomes of current trends and offer a few predictions. Most topics will be discussed by country located in the Middle East, but not every country or movement will be covered.
Middle East
Israel-Palestine
Since the Israeli air raids on Gaza are dominating the headlines we can start with the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has had a temporary cease fire with Hamas controlled Gaza for the last 16 months; however rocket attacks originating from Gaza has forced the Israeli government to respond. In contrast to the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah-Hamas war, Israel only has one front to deal with and thus little incentive to stop the current operation. Although Israel engaged in a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, the goals of the operation have not been clearly and thus success cannot be determined. The likely outcome is that Hamas will be hurt but not completely destroyed. In the West Bank we can expect to see the Fatah movement gain strength at the expense of Hamas. Hamas is a terrorist group without any experience governing and it shows in this current crisis. Israel will continue along the status quo with a few interventions by western politicians trying to bring peace. The wildcard for Israel in 2009 will be Hezbollah; it is very possible another war with the Lebanese terror group could breakout.
Syria-Lebanon
Syria has been working with the Europeans and Turkey to hammer out a peace deal with Israel. As I have argued before, Syria has lost its most recent patron – Iran – and now must look to other avenues for economic growth. For this to work Syria must drop the rogue regime act, recognize Lebanon as an independent nation, and reign in terrorist groups (i.e. Hezbollah) that operate under Syria’s watch. Once this is accomplished a peace deal with Israel is a very real possibility in the next two to three years.
The biggest challenge for Syria is Hezbollah. Hezbollah has grown significantly and has proven it can intimidate the Lebanese government and threaten Israel conventionally. The onus is on Damascus to weaken Hezbollah to the point that is cannot threaten the Lebanese government or Israel. In the middle of all this is Lebanon. Lebanon is a country fractured by warfare from a variety of sectarian groups and only knows order when a third party intervenes. Previously that third party had been the Syrians, but that changed with the March 14th democratic movement. Unfortunately, the existence of Hezbollah and the devastation that resulted from the 2006 war with Israel has brought nothing but trouble for this experiment in democracy. For Lebanon to become a stable nation it will take the dismantling of Hezbollah and substantial outside assistance. Since this is unlikely to happen in the coming year Lebanon will be forced to continue limping along. Syria’s fortunes on the other hand are completely dependent upon third party diplomacy and the resolution of the Israeli political mess.
Turkey
Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, Turkey has managed to spread its influence in Iraq, Syria, and even Iran. Turkey has also opened the door towards reconciliation with Albania – a very sensitive topic as the U.S. congress recently found out. The reasoning behind Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives are two-fold, one is looking for alternative oil and natural gas avenues for supplying Europe to break the Russian monopoly on hydrocarbons, and two Turkey looks for any way it can to piss off the Russians despite the two nations being trading partners. Look for Turkey to come out of the global financial crisis stronger and more relevant in the Middle East and Europe.
Iraq
Throughout history the one factor that has started more wars than other is simple geography. Therefore it is no coincidence that Iraq, considered the birthplace of civilization, will be a powerful nation. In the past, wars over this piece of real estate came down to simple location. Iraq was a source of water and all major trade routes went through this area. Today water is still an important resource, but coupled with large oil reserves and other natural resources Iraq stands poised to once again become the regional power player in the ME.
The last five years in Iraq have seen shifting political loyalties with the numerous tribes throwing their lot in with whoever had the most money or guns. But as the U.S. surge went on the Iraqi government has managed to consolidate power through numerous backroom deals. The Iraqi security forces have also gained from the political progress and have become largely self reliant. Perhaps the issue that is most pressing in the U.S. – Iraqi relationship is the future role that the U.S. military will play. On the ground the Iraqis are steady improving militarily, but are still lacking a meaningful air force and have only recently begun training for casualty evacuation. What does look promising is the potential sales of the M-1 Abrams main battle tank to the Iraqi military. If the U.S. is not directly involved in security operations the sales of equipment may prove to be the decisive factor for the central government of Iraq to hold the country together.
Iraq has seen great improvement both on the economic and security fronts, but still has room for improvement. Unemployment is high and security operations are still ongoing in parts of the nation. While al-Qaeda has had its presence in Iraq diminished significantly, the organization still poses a threat. But these challenges can be overcome. The high price of oil this summer together with the increased production out of Iraq has helped boost the popularity of the government. The Prime Minister has personally walked around Baghdad handing out money on several occasions. Gestures such as this will only help to solidify the position of the government. The high price of oil may have been a positive for Iraq but the country still must meet the challenge of diversifying its economy and fostering foreign investment if it is to live up to the countries potential of being a regional powerhouse.
Iran
Iran is in bad shape economically. Inflation is around 20 percent, unemployment is in the double digits, and 18 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty. The Iranian nuclear program has increased these problems by bringing international sanctions against Iranian banks and its wealthiest citizens. Additional problems include government sponsored gas subsidies in the face of high oil prices. Now that oil prices have fallen, Iran has been forced to rewrite its budget for 2009. Iran may be a top exporter of petroleum, but is also a major importer of refined products such as gasoline. In other words, Iran is increasingly vulnerable to international pressure and possibly revolution.
With Iran as isolated as it is and with international sanctions steadily increasing over the nuclear program one would think that military action is inevitable when in fact the opposite is true. Israel has made statements that it will not allow Iran to construct a nuclear weapon and will use force to stop it, but it lacks the military capability to do so. A U.S. led operation is really the only possibility should a military confrontation with Iran take place. The Pentagon has stated that it could destroy the Iranian military in three days, but the U.S. does not see Iran as much of a threat and thus will not make a move in the near future. Even without military action taken against it and new elections coming in the spring, 2009 will be a very bad year for Tehran.
Saudi Arabia
The rapid increase and subsequent decrease in oil prices has not hurt the Saudi Kingdom. In fact, the low oil prices are working to keep Saudi Arabia’s main rival – Iran – weak. Currently the Saudi’s have a cash reserve of about one trillion U.S. dollars and is looking to put that money to use in areas such as expanding oil production or supporting Chechen rebels against Russia. If the Saudi’s are able to expand their proven oil reserves and construct new storage facilities the country will have the ability to cut oil prices overnight to hurt Iran. The biggest challenge for Riyadh in the coming year is to keep Russian adventures in the Middle East in check. The House of Saud enjoys their current situation and don’t want the Russians mucking things up. All in all expect Saudi Arabia to have a good 2009.
Arab Gulf States (sans Saudi Arabia)
The Arab Gulf States are comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia was considered separate because of the size of its economy and importance globally. In the case of the remaining states all have small populations and large incomes thanks to large petroleum reserves and a steady stream of foreign investment. It is unlikely that any major changes will take place in any of these nations and should continue to be safe for business development and other investment.
Yemen
The country of Yemen is in trouble. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has made a return thanks to the release of members from Guantanamo. Because of the complexity of Yemen a full analysis will follow.
Middle East
Israel-Palestine
Since the Israeli air raids on Gaza are dominating the headlines we can start with the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has had a temporary cease fire with Hamas controlled Gaza for the last 16 months; however rocket attacks originating from Gaza has forced the Israeli government to respond. In contrast to the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah-Hamas war, Israel only has one front to deal with and thus little incentive to stop the current operation. Although Israel engaged in a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, the goals of the operation have not been clearly and thus success cannot be determined. The likely outcome is that Hamas will be hurt but not completely destroyed. In the West Bank we can expect to see the Fatah movement gain strength at the expense of Hamas. Hamas is a terrorist group without any experience governing and it shows in this current crisis. Israel will continue along the status quo with a few interventions by western politicians trying to bring peace. The wildcard for Israel in 2009 will be Hezbollah; it is very possible another war with the Lebanese terror group could breakout.
Syria-Lebanon
Syria has been working with the Europeans and Turkey to hammer out a peace deal with Israel. As I have argued before, Syria has lost its most recent patron – Iran – and now must look to other avenues for economic growth. For this to work Syria must drop the rogue regime act, recognize Lebanon as an independent nation, and reign in terrorist groups (i.e. Hezbollah) that operate under Syria’s watch. Once this is accomplished a peace deal with Israel is a very real possibility in the next two to three years.
The biggest challenge for Syria is Hezbollah. Hezbollah has grown significantly and has proven it can intimidate the Lebanese government and threaten Israel conventionally. The onus is on Damascus to weaken Hezbollah to the point that is cannot threaten the Lebanese government or Israel. In the middle of all this is Lebanon. Lebanon is a country fractured by warfare from a variety of sectarian groups and only knows order when a third party intervenes. Previously that third party had been the Syrians, but that changed with the March 14th democratic movement. Unfortunately, the existence of Hezbollah and the devastation that resulted from the 2006 war with Israel has brought nothing but trouble for this experiment in democracy. For Lebanon to become a stable nation it will take the dismantling of Hezbollah and substantial outside assistance. Since this is unlikely to happen in the coming year Lebanon will be forced to continue limping along. Syria’s fortunes on the other hand are completely dependent upon third party diplomacy and the resolution of the Israeli political mess.
Turkey
Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, Turkey has managed to spread its influence in Iraq, Syria, and even Iran. Turkey has also opened the door towards reconciliation with Albania – a very sensitive topic as the U.S. congress recently found out. The reasoning behind Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives are two-fold, one is looking for alternative oil and natural gas avenues for supplying Europe to break the Russian monopoly on hydrocarbons, and two Turkey looks for any way it can to piss off the Russians despite the two nations being trading partners. Look for Turkey to come out of the global financial crisis stronger and more relevant in the Middle East and Europe.
Iraq
Throughout history the one factor that has started more wars than other is simple geography. Therefore it is no coincidence that Iraq, considered the birthplace of civilization, will be a powerful nation. In the past, wars over this piece of real estate came down to simple location. Iraq was a source of water and all major trade routes went through this area. Today water is still an important resource, but coupled with large oil reserves and other natural resources Iraq stands poised to once again become the regional power player in the ME.
The last five years in Iraq have seen shifting political loyalties with the numerous tribes throwing their lot in with whoever had the most money or guns. But as the U.S. surge went on the Iraqi government has managed to consolidate power through numerous backroom deals. The Iraqi security forces have also gained from the political progress and have become largely self reliant. Perhaps the issue that is most pressing in the U.S. – Iraqi relationship is the future role that the U.S. military will play. On the ground the Iraqis are steady improving militarily, but are still lacking a meaningful air force and have only recently begun training for casualty evacuation. What does look promising is the potential sales of the M-1 Abrams main battle tank to the Iraqi military. If the U.S. is not directly involved in security operations the sales of equipment may prove to be the decisive factor for the central government of Iraq to hold the country together.
Iraq has seen great improvement both on the economic and security fronts, but still has room for improvement. Unemployment is high and security operations are still ongoing in parts of the nation. While al-Qaeda has had its presence in Iraq diminished significantly, the organization still poses a threat. But these challenges can be overcome. The high price of oil this summer together with the increased production out of Iraq has helped boost the popularity of the government. The Prime Minister has personally walked around Baghdad handing out money on several occasions. Gestures such as this will only help to solidify the position of the government. The high price of oil may have been a positive for Iraq but the country still must meet the challenge of diversifying its economy and fostering foreign investment if it is to live up to the countries potential of being a regional powerhouse.
Iran
Iran is in bad shape economically. Inflation is around 20 percent, unemployment is in the double digits, and 18 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty. The Iranian nuclear program has increased these problems by bringing international sanctions against Iranian banks and its wealthiest citizens. Additional problems include government sponsored gas subsidies in the face of high oil prices. Now that oil prices have fallen, Iran has been forced to rewrite its budget for 2009. Iran may be a top exporter of petroleum, but is also a major importer of refined products such as gasoline. In other words, Iran is increasingly vulnerable to international pressure and possibly revolution.
With Iran as isolated as it is and with international sanctions steadily increasing over the nuclear program one would think that military action is inevitable when in fact the opposite is true. Israel has made statements that it will not allow Iran to construct a nuclear weapon and will use force to stop it, but it lacks the military capability to do so. A U.S. led operation is really the only possibility should a military confrontation with Iran take place. The Pentagon has stated that it could destroy the Iranian military in three days, but the U.S. does not see Iran as much of a threat and thus will not make a move in the near future. Even without military action taken against it and new elections coming in the spring, 2009 will be a very bad year for Tehran.
Saudi Arabia
The rapid increase and subsequent decrease in oil prices has not hurt the Saudi Kingdom. In fact, the low oil prices are working to keep Saudi Arabia’s main rival – Iran – weak. Currently the Saudi’s have a cash reserve of about one trillion U.S. dollars and is looking to put that money to use in areas such as expanding oil production or supporting Chechen rebels against Russia. If the Saudi’s are able to expand their proven oil reserves and construct new storage facilities the country will have the ability to cut oil prices overnight to hurt Iran. The biggest challenge for Riyadh in the coming year is to keep Russian adventures in the Middle East in check. The House of Saud enjoys their current situation and don’t want the Russians mucking things up. All in all expect Saudi Arabia to have a good 2009.
Arab Gulf States (sans Saudi Arabia)
The Arab Gulf States are comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia was considered separate because of the size of its economy and importance globally. In the case of the remaining states all have small populations and large incomes thanks to large petroleum reserves and a steady stream of foreign investment. It is unlikely that any major changes will take place in any of these nations and should continue to be safe for business development and other investment.
Yemen
The country of Yemen is in trouble. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has made a return thanks to the release of members from Guantanamo. Because of the complexity of Yemen a full analysis will follow.
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam: A Primer
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or LTTE for short, is a separatist group based in Sri Lanka that has been fighting the majority Buddhist Sinhalese Government of the island nation since 1983. While the group was founded in 1976, it is the LTTE ambush of a military patrol that killed 13 in 1983 that is seen as the first battle of the civil war in Sri Lanka. In 2002, the LTTE and the government signed a cease-fire agreement that temporarily ended the violence only to see tensions erupt again in 2006 over the distribution of international aid that poured into the country after the 2004 tsunami. It is true that the LTTE have participated in peace talks; however their deliberate targeting of civilians and oppressive rule in the areas that group controls is what earns the Tigers the moniker of international terrorist organization. A 1999 estimate of deaths resulting from the fighting between the government and the LTTE came to about 60,000.
Leadership in the group is broken down into two tiers which include a military wing and a political wing that is subordinate. The leader and founder of the LTTE, Velupillai Prabhakaran, heads the central governing committee that oversees both wings. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, the central governing committee is also responsible for directing and controlling several specific subdivisions, including, an amphibious group (the Sea Tigers), an airborne group, (known as the Air Tigers), an elite fighting wing (known as the Charles Anthony Regiment), a suicide commando unit (the Black Tigers), a highly secretive intelligence group and a political office headed by Thamilselvam and Anton Balasingham, widely regarded to be the political advisor and ideologue of the LTTE. Additionally, the central governing committee has an international wing which runs the group’s global infrastructure. In all, the group is comprised of about 16,000 people according to the Sri Lankan government. Children soldiers are often forcibly recruited into the group to keep the number of members high.
The LTTE are unique among terrorist groups for several reasons among which are: The ability to govern provinces in the north and east of their home nation, the existence of an air force and navy (these elements are small but very effective), and the tactical capabilities to directly engage government troops. Perhaps the most startling revelation about the group is their invention of the suicide bomber vest and belt. In fact, while we often link suicide bombing to Palestinian terrorist groups it was the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) that dispatched several members to Sri Lanka in the 1980’s to learn this tactic for use against Israel. This tactic pioneered in the remote jungles of Sri Lanka has now become a nearly universally adopted weapon employed by terrorists around the world.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have also proven to be quite adept in the art of assassination. For instance, the LTTE assassinated Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi when peace keepers from India arrived in Sri Lanka to offer counterinsurgency aid to the local military. The LTTE also managed to kill Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993. Others assassinated by the LTTE include:
In recent months the Sri Lankan government has managed to cause significant damage to the group via military and financial means. Since the beginning of the U.S. led War on Terror, terrorist groups that are designated as such by the U.S. State Department will be targeted financially through new legislation in countries allied with the U.S. and through the U.N. While these measures have hurt the group in countries where it used to operate freely, the LTTE has used illicit means, such as drug running, to augment their income. These measures have aided the Sri Lankan government greatly in their twenty plus war with the group. It should be noted however, that the LTTE has managed to survive international pressure and infighting throughout its 32 year history and will not go away quietly.
Today, government forces have managed to capture the de facto capital of the Tamal separatists in the northern part of the country. This is a significant blow to the terrorist organization, but a political solution is still needed to bring peace to a country that has been in a perpetual state of war for nearly forty years.
Leadership in the group is broken down into two tiers which include a military wing and a political wing that is subordinate. The leader and founder of the LTTE, Velupillai Prabhakaran, heads the central governing committee that oversees both wings. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, the central governing committee is also responsible for directing and controlling several specific subdivisions, including, an amphibious group (the Sea Tigers), an airborne group, (known as the Air Tigers), an elite fighting wing (known as the Charles Anthony Regiment), a suicide commando unit (the Black Tigers), a highly secretive intelligence group and a political office headed by Thamilselvam and Anton Balasingham, widely regarded to be the political advisor and ideologue of the LTTE. Additionally, the central governing committee has an international wing which runs the group’s global infrastructure. In all, the group is comprised of about 16,000 people according to the Sri Lankan government. Children soldiers are often forcibly recruited into the group to keep the number of members high.
The LTTE are unique among terrorist groups for several reasons among which are: The ability to govern provinces in the north and east of their home nation, the existence of an air force and navy (these elements are small but very effective), and the tactical capabilities to directly engage government troops. Perhaps the most startling revelation about the group is their invention of the suicide bomber vest and belt. In fact, while we often link suicide bombing to Palestinian terrorist groups it was the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) that dispatched several members to Sri Lanka in the 1980’s to learn this tactic for use against Israel. This tactic pioneered in the remote jungles of Sri Lanka has now become a nearly universally adopted weapon employed by terrorists around the world.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have also proven to be quite adept in the art of assassination. For instance, the LTTE assassinated Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi when peace keepers from India arrived in Sri Lanka to offer counterinsurgency aid to the local military. The LTTE also managed to kill Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993. Others assassinated by the LTTE include:
Alfred Duraiyappah, mayor of Jaffna in the attack that brought them to prominence in 1975
Ranjan Wijeratne, Sri Lankan cabinet minister, former general, and the Minister of Defense
Lalith Athulathmudali, Sri Lankan cabinet minister
Gamini Dissanayake, Sri Lankan presidential candidate
Major Gen. Parami Kulatunga, third-highest ranking officer in the Sri Lankan Army
Lakshman Kadirgamar, Sri Lankan foreign minister, lawyer and international humanitarian
In recent months the Sri Lankan government has managed to cause significant damage to the group via military and financial means. Since the beginning of the U.S. led War on Terror, terrorist groups that are designated as such by the U.S. State Department will be targeted financially through new legislation in countries allied with the U.S. and through the U.N. While these measures have hurt the group in countries where it used to operate freely, the LTTE has used illicit means, such as drug running, to augment their income. These measures have aided the Sri Lankan government greatly in their twenty plus war with the group. It should be noted however, that the LTTE has managed to survive international pressure and infighting throughout its 32 year history and will not go away quietly.
Today, government forces have managed to capture the de facto capital of the Tamal separatists in the northern part of the country. This is a significant blow to the terrorist organization, but a political solution is still needed to bring peace to a country that has been in a perpetual state of war for nearly forty years.
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