Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

For the last two years several terrorists experts, myself included, have been pointing to Yemen and Somalia as countries that have not had adequate attention or resources devoted to fighting the growing terrorism threat in these nations. It wasn’t until the failed attempt to destroy an aircraft on Christmas Day that the threat from Yemen was brought to the fore, fleeting though it was. Currently, the Yemen government has had a few successful operations against al-Qaeda in the past few months, but the momentum has died along with the press coverage. Somalia on the other hand has been watched off and on as small, targeted operations by the U.S. have been carried out with Operation Celestial Balance being the most visible.

With these political shifts in Somalia it does indeed appear as if the Somali TFG, backed by African Union peacekeepers, may attempt to eject al-Shabaab from Mogadishu to give the fledgling government some breathing room. The U.S. stated today that they will not take a direct role in any offensive, but this does not rule out support actions such as naval and air support as was seen in 2006 when Ethiopia invaded and removed the Islamic Courts Union from power. Al-Shabaab on the other hand will not take this lying down which explains why Fazul Abdullah Mohammed has been given a prominent role.

At this point Mohammed’s role is unclear, but he is unlikely to have been made leader of the group. Instead it is more likely that he will be acting as the head military commander because of his experience and his ability to do something that most terrorists have trouble doing – staying alive while continuing to operate. Fazul Mohammad has an extensive background in planning terrorist attacks in multiple African countries, speaks five languages, and goes by over twenty known aliases. Simply put, Mohammad is a terrorist that folks in the counterterrorist community dread, not unlike the now deceased Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh. If Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place.

 In the past Mohammed has had success in running multiple, simultaneous operations and it is reasonable to expect he will do so now that he has been placed in command of al-Shabaab. The most likely targets will be in Africa such as elements of the Ethiopian government and of course targets of the U.S. At this point al-Shabaab’s ability to strike within the U.S. is unknown, probably limited at best, but it cannot be ruled out. Al-Shabaab has recruited from the large Somali population in the U.S., and in fact, has caused concern within the FBI because some have returned to Somalia and disappeared. One such individual became the first known U.S. suicide bomber when he executed an attack in Somalia on al-Shabaab’s behalf.  While we don’t know what Mohammad’s plans are, we can be sure that Somalia will remain a dangerous place and the U.S. will remain an al-Shabaab target.

American al-Qaeda Adam Gadahn Captured

The spokesman for al Qaeda prime, Adam Gadahn, has been arrested in Karachi Pakistan according to sources of both the Associated Press and Reuters. Because Gadahn is known to go by several aliases it is difficult to ascertain at this time if the press reports are indeed accurate. This confusion has led the press to proclaim Gadahn's death in the past only to have the terrorist resurface. For the sake of this article we'll assume the reports are correct.

Since Gadahn began working with al-Qaeda he has released, and probably produced, numerous videos of propaganda value. The usefulness of propaganda by terrorist movements cannot be understated as it helps in recruiting and countering the message of their targets. If Gadahn was as involved in creating these videos as many suspect, his absence will have a significant impact on al Qaeda's ability to spread propaganda effectively. Furthermore, Gadahn released a new video this morning just before his arrest, but we don't know if the two are connected.

Gadahn's arrest comes on the heels of several other arrests of high level Taliban members and it is possible intelligence gathered from those individuals helped in locating Gadahn. Many analysts suspect that members of the Taliban Shura* left the city of Quetta in the Baluchistan province when the U.S. began threatening to expand drone strikes to the area. This threat by the U.S. was never expected to occur as Quetta is densely populated and collateral damage would have been high, but the threat seemed to have forced many operatives to move to a safer location. Indeed, Pakistani news outlets began reporting on a mass influx of Pashtu into Karachi around the same time of the U.S. threats and the subsequent Pakistani military operations in Swat and South Waziristan.

Assuming that Gadahn has information on the whereabouts of other Taliban/al Qaeda members, his detention could have a harmful effect on both movements. Since Gadahn released a video today it is possible that he possess time sensitive information on the location of other wanted individuals, but with the rampant media reports about his detention it may be already too late. With the numerous arrests of other high level Taliban it is likely they will be forced to respond, and historically speaking their response will be violent. This analysis is preliminary and we will continue to follow future developments as they become available.

*The Shura discussed here is the one directly associated with Mullah Omar, the leader of the main Taliban movement.

The Curious Assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh

I don’t typically write on every assassination of a terrorist leader as details are often sketchy and speculation in the press is widespread. This does not mean, however, that I refrain from discussing the more notable drone strikes in Pakistan. The reason for this is simple, the means and methods of the drone strikes are known as is the party responsible. This is not always the case for covert operations, but the case of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh is different. I don’t have all the facts, but I have managed to amass enough information to discuss the assassination intelligently.

Assassinations are often believed to be used solely for leadership decapitation purposes, but while this does happen contemporary studies show that nation-states often have other plans in mind. But before we discuss the al-Mabhouh assassination it’s useful to provide an event that is historically analogous, such as that of Imad Mughniyeh, to prove this point. Mughniyeh was the Hezbollah mastermind behind the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon and several other terrorist acts across the globe. As such, Mughniyeh was wanted by several governments and was actively sought by intelligence services for years. Mughniyeh’s time came to an end via a bomb placed in the headrest of his vehicle while in Damascus. To be sure, the assassination of Mughniyeh did damage the external operations of Hezbollah, but did not destroy the organization. Then again it wasn’t expected to.

Several months before the Mughniyeh assassination, the Israeli Air Force struck and destroyed a nuclear facility being constructed in Northern Syria. These two incidents, neither of which was minor, put Syria on the defensive. Shortly thereafter, Israel and Syria began peace talks brokered by both Turkey and the U.S. While I don’t have evidence linking the airstrike and assassination to the peace talks the timing is compelling. This brings us back to the al-Mabhouh assassination.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and was currently serving as senior commander in charge of armaments. One of his recent claims to fame was orchestrating the movement of armaments and munitions from Iran, through Sudan to the Siani Peninsula, and finally through underground tunnels into the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis, finally wise to this new method of arms smuggling, launched an airstrike on March 26, 2009 against an arms convoy in Northern Sudan thus disrupting any further use of these transit points. For the Israelis this was incredibly important. After Operation Cast Lead, Israel wanted to prevent any chance Hamas had at rearming and threatening Israeli civilians in the future. This effort against arms smuggling has had a good success rate and has kept Hamas silent. The next logical step would be to remove the arms smuggler, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Just as the Mughniyeh assassination was meant to force an issue with Syria the al-Mabhouh killing was meant to hinder arms smuggling into Gaza and send a message to Iran. Here are the known operational details of the al-Mabhouh assassination available in the open source:

• Al-Mabhouh arrives in Dubai via Emirates flight AQ 912 on January 19, 2010.
• He then arrives at the Hotel Bustan Rotana at 4:30 p.m. then departed for the Iranian embassy a half hour later. At this time surveillance conducted by the assassination team convergences on the Hotel and sets up shop.
• Al-Mabhouh returns from the embassy to the hotel, room 130, at approximately 9:00 p.m.
• According to Dubai police al-Mabhouh answered a knock on his door shortly after returning and was hit with a stun gun, strangled and injected with a poison.
• Al-Mabhouh’s body was discovered in the early morning of January 20 after his wife notified Hamas officials she couldn’t reach him by phone.

While officials in Dubai were quick to point fingers at the Israeli Mossad it is clear that others were involved by the resulting arrests. Hamas has been undergoing an internal struggle and the arrests of Nahro Massoud and Mahmoud Nasser, both of Hamas, show that the assassination team may have had inside help (one Kuwaiti newspaper claims that Nahro Massoud was with al-Mabhouh near the time of his death). In the wake of these and other arrests there are indications that Dubai may want to end this investigation quickly as the Dubai police have enlisted the help of the Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence services to aid in the investigation. On its face it appears that Dubai has asked for assistance from Egypt and Jordan because it needs help in the intelligence realm, however, al-Mabhouh was wanted by both nations and they hardly want to pursue the case any further meaning the investigation is likely to hit a wall. In Europe there are some nations upset over the use of EU member passports as cover for the assassination team and not the actual assassination itself, but this too is likely to slowly fade away (two British newspapers are actually claiming that the Israelis notified the UK that this was going to happen beforehand). In the near term we can expect to see continued media coverage, but Israel has done what it set out to do – Iran, and their proxies, have been put on notice.

Photo: Dubai police compilation of alleged assassins

The Impending Battle of Marja

Now that the Super Bowl is over its back to reality. Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand’s capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

Global Instability and Rising Oil Prices

Each day that passes it seems that filling up at the pump is becoming more painful. Many oil exporting countries are currently experiencing abnormally high instability ranging from the Caucus region all the way to Sub-Saharan Africa. Here is a quick rundown:

In the mid-1990’s the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan came to a tenuous end, but things are starting to heat up again. Most of the fuss is over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan that is primarily made up of Armenians. Azerbaijan wants the territory back while Armenia feels the need to protect members of its ethnicity. The major players backing Armenia are Greece and Russia, while those backing Azerbaijan are Turkey, and from a military industrial perspective, Israel. To paraphrase one regional analyst, this is one of those regional things that could spin out control and start a third world war much like the Balkans incident that started the First World War. I doubt this will happen, but any conflict in the region could cause disruptions in the only major energy pipeline that serves Europe without traversing Russian territory.

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

The regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela is once again under attack from pro-democracy forces protesting the excesses of the Bolivarian style government. Chavez has survived these tests before, but with a crumbling infrastructure it is possible that the power grid could fail in the near future. Currently, the opposition forces are not adequately coordinated, but if things get worse the government of Venezuela would be up for grabs. Chavez has used the nation’s oil money for populous spending all the while ignoring other issues. This could come to a head relatively soon.

I’ve been discussing the Iranian nuclear standoff for some time; however defensive movements by the US followed by threats from the Iranian regime are increasing. If this standoff comes to blows it wouldn’t be beyond reason to expect Iran to cause havoc in the Strait of Hormuz which could potentially cutoff much of the world’s oil supply. February is the month to watch Iran and it won't be pretty.

A lesser known problem exists in Angola. Recently the soccer team from Togo came under attack while traveling through the oil rich Angolan enclave of Cabinda. The group most likely responsible for the attack is the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) who has been supported by elements in the two Congo’s. This is very unlikely to get out of hand, but one never knows.

It may not seem like much separately, but taken together the crude oil supply that much of the developed world has come to rely on is trapped in regions wracked by instability in the best of times or fighting seemingly endless wars in the worst of times. Unfortunately, I don’t expect anything to improve any time soon.

In Homeland Security: A New Endeavor

I have been asked, and I have accepted, a position as a contributor to the In Homeland Security Blog run by American Military University.

In Homeland Security is an American Military University (AMU) sponsored blog that features analysis and commentary on homeland security-related issues.

A network of industry experts will cover topics dealing with terrorism research, emergency preparedness and disaster response, border security, transportation and logistics, military intelligence, law enforcement, cyber security and national security.

Our intended audience is comprised of the expert-level policymakers as well as the more broad and general audience of people interested in homeland defense-related topics. The blog is non-partisan and non-commercial.

This is a great opportunity and am very pleased an academic institution would chose me for this work.

A Recent Spike in Terrorist Activity

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Usama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new communiqué, bin Laden had the following to say:

In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama.

"May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point US intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and state, “This phrase, ‘Peace be upon those who follow guidance,’ appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked.” This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden; however, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to ‘severe’ falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an “unusually high” number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK’s no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. After all, it is doubtful that bin Laden crawled out of his hole just to say hello.

New Threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The Middle East Media Research Institute has stated that a new post originating from Al-Falluja, a popular jihadist website, is seeking information about U.S. naval activities in the Persian Gulf region. According to MEMRI the post is asking for, “the name of the particular naval unit to be targeted, its exact location, the number of troops on board the warship and their ranks, familial status, where their families live, the type of weapons the warship carries and the number of nuclear bombs onboard.” Furthermore, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas, quoting militant sources, stated that “weapons sent to forces of the Somali government by Western countries have fallen into the hands of the mujahedeen” (most likely a reference to al-Shabaab). Al-Qabas goes on to claim that these advanced weapons have been moved to Yemen.

Threats like this are nothing new. It is not uncommon for terrorist groups or sympathetic individuals to issue threats against the U.S. under different identities using a variety of names for the same group. The purpose is to confuse intelligence services monitoring communications by overloading the analysts whose job it is to sift through the gathered information. A great example of this problem is the case of Irhaby007. Before this man was brought to justice it took the cooperation of several countries, multiple intelligence and law enforcement agencies and a few private firms to finally uncover one man’s identity. This is not to say the recently issued threat is not without merit. On the contrary, the timing of the threat and the individual believed to have posted it actually give this threat more credence. After all, terrorists are known to return to successful attacks such as the one carried out in Yemen against the USS Cole in 2000.

All told it appears as if al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula does indeed desire to strike at U.S. military targets, whether they still retain the capability following the counterterrorist operations carried out by the Yemen government is another story. According to press releases from NCIS, they are taking the threat seriously. In fact, my NCIS contact just returned from the region and confirmed his agencies stance (this contact was involved in the Cole investigation). Hopefully we’ll learn more in the coming days and weeks.

For those readers who have family members in the region the threat brings to light the intelligence threat posed by terrorist groups. The post specifically requests information on the sailors aboard the ship as well as their family. Social networking sites, such as Facebook, pose a threat to your family abroad if you give up too much information about your loved one. It is prudent that you only allow people you know to see your profile information as well as your status updates. As a counterintelligence officer I frequently look up employees in my company to see what information may be available to foreign intelligence officers looking for an easy target to exploit. It doesn’t take much to steal an identity or blackmail someone with an update that may have seemed innocuous at the time. Everybody, including family members of the military, intelligence community and defense contractors, must practice good operational security or OPSEC. The Cole bombing taught the U.S. a very important lesson – loose lips still sink ships.

Al-Qaeda in Yemen

The attempted bombing of a U.S. bound flight has brought the three-front war in Yemen to the forefront. Almost a year ago now, two former inmates of the Guantanamo military prison in Cuba resurfaced in Yemen as leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). While this was an interesting development, what is more important to note is that AQAP has managed to survive and is now operating in Yemen as opposed to Saudi Arabia. About a year and a half ago I stated that it was possible for AQAP in Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen to facilitate moving of arms, people, and launching attacks in the future. This is indeed occurring, but the al-Qaeda affiliates have decided to merge instead of maintaining autonomy. This has occurred for two reasons. The first is that Saudi Arabia encouraged these radicals to go to Iraq and fight the U.S., but when they tried to return they were persona non grata. The second reason is that Yemen is far more conducive to terrorist operations because of the deteriorating of the security environment and the proximity to another al-Qaeda entity in Somalia.

Understanding Yemen

Yemen occupies the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. This area is a geographically strategic area that facilitated trade between the sub-Saharan empires of Africa with the fluctuating empires coming from Asia prior to being conquered by the Ethiopian Empire and then by the Persians. Yemen would eventually follow suit with the rest of the Arabian Peninsula and undergo a forced conversion to Islam led by the Prophet Muhammad. In the 9th century A.D., the al-Zaydi tribe of Mesopotamia migrated and settled in the mountainous region of western Yemen around the ancient city of Sa’dah. The al- Zaydi tribe would eventually bring the indigenous tribes under their full control thus expanding their territory all the way to the Red Sea, but failing to secure the entirety of the southwest Arabian plateau. Several centuries later in 1517 the Ottoman Turks would conquer Yemen leading to occasional self rule until the Empire’s fall at the close of World War I.

Technically Yemen was an independent country after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, but several areas were actually occupied and administered by the British with the port city of Aden being the most visible. Once World War I ended, Yemen once again became an Imamate with areas under British control tied loosely together under the aegis of the Protectorate of South Arabia while the rest of the country was ruled by the Imam Yahya. Yemen would suffer from several civil wars from 1914 to 1994 both in the context of an occupying power and the ideological struggles of the Cold War. Following independence, Yemen struggled to forge a new identity and maintained an Imamate government that ruled until 1962 when the last Royalist was deposed by military officers that championed the Arab socialist movement headed by Egypt’s Nasser. At the time of the military coup, Nasser was looking to solidify his position as leader of the pan-Arab movement and nearby Yemen appeared to be fertile ground not only for spreading the revolution, but also keeping Saudi Arabia – the competing leader of the Arab world – off balance. Nasser did not waste any time sending Egyptian troops into Yemen to prop up the new government once the coup was initiated. As expected, Saudi Arabia did not take this development lightly.

The resulting civil war was fought by the Nasser backed socialists and the Saudi/Western backed Royalists. The Egyptian military soon found themselves the target of Royalist insurgents and fighters from the al Zaydi tribe that would last 5 long years and cost Egypt a military defeat in two theaters; one in Yemen and the other by Israel in the 1967 war. While the Royalist movement forced Egypt to withdraw militarily lasting divisions among the Yemeni people were drawn. With the involvement of western powers fighting a socialist movement, the Soviet Union felt compelled to move in and facilitate a Marxist movement among the remaining socialists that would divide the Yemeni state in two. The Royalists won the war against Egypt, but lost the war for a unified Yemen.

The division of Yemen significantly weakened an already poor state. The limited resources were now divided between the two states and subsequently were poorly managed. In 1989, the governments of North and South Yemen came to a compromise which resulted in unification the next year, but the damage to the economy was done. By 1994, Southern secessionists angry over wealth distribution and government corruption were once again challenging the government leading to yet another civil war. Government forces under the leadership of President Ali Abdallah Salih eventually won, but the secessionist movement in the south would not go away. Since the end of the 1994 war, the national government in Sana’a has been continually fighting the secessionists in the south and the Houthi faction of the Zaydi tribe in the north. In the midst of all of this President Salih used international militants, including al-Qaeda, to fight a war of attrition against both movements. Unfortunately for Salih, al-Qaeda had an agenda of its own.

Yemen’s Three-Front War

Yemen’s current war is certainly a challenge for the Arab state. The secessionists in the south have been protesting as usual and fortunately for Sana’a the violence has been relatively small. The Houthi rebellion in the north on the other hand is quite severe. The Houthi’s have managed to ambush and even defeat armed engagements with the Yemeni military primarily because of outside assistance. The insurgency has gotten so bad that Saudi Arabia, a nation that usually does not engage in direct combat, has sent troops across the border into Yemen to aid their southern neighbor. Further complicating matters is Hezbollah has sent fighters from Lebanon to aid the Houthi’s at the behest of Iran turning what was once a manageable rebellion into a full fledged proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran.*

In its usual style, al-Qaeda has done what it can to exploit the situation. After the two al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula nodes merged jihadists from Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, and Somalia began showing up for training and recruiting. In fact, some of the Somali suicide bombers have trained in Yemen and have definitely benefited from the wealth of experience from combat veterans. Thus, it is no surprise that the suspect that attempted to bomb a U.S. airliner trained in Yemen. In light of the failed attempt Yemeni counterterrorist units have targeted al-Qaeda militants operating in the eastern part of the country. Unfortunately, with military units fighting that Houthi’s in the north and keeping the peace with the secessionists in the south, a prolonged campaign against al-Qaeda faces some significant challenges. Indeed, the situation is dire.

The Way Forward

It is highly unlikely that the U.S. would participate overtly in any campaign against al-Qaeda in Yemen. Not only does the U.S. have multiple priorities, but Yemen is unlikely to accept any non-Arab support in any conventional operation. This does not mean however, that the U.S. will be excluded. In the last ten years the U.S. has taken an on again off again interest in Yemen starting with the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Since then the U.S. has used unmanned aircraft and naval support in targeting militants without using a substantial ground presence, although Special Forces have gone in into Yemen proper. If Washington truly feels a need to increase its involvement in Yemen it has the tools to do it. Currently the U.S. has a large military and intelligence presence in Djibouti and Saudi Arabia that are more than capable of handling sensitive, covert missions throughout the region.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is not a jihadist startup by any stretch of the imagination. It is highly likely that the more experienced members will flee to Somalia if they feel threatened and shack up with al-Shabaab. After all, these militants have done so before when they left Iraq and Afghanistan. When all is said and done the U.S. and its allies cannot completely eliminate the jihadist threat, but they can make al-Qaeda’s ability to operate and survive very difficult indeed.

*Multiple news outlets have claimed that evidence of foreign assistance in the Houthi rebellion is lacking. When looking for information from traditional news sources this may be true; however intelligence contacts in several Middle East nations have confirmed that foreign aid from Hezbollah and Iran has made it to Yemen. In fact, Hezbollah has lost several members as a result of fighting in Northern Yemen as detailed on their website.

Double Agent Kills Seven CIA Officers

In the last week multiple news outlets reported that seven CIA operatives were assassinated in Afghanistan by a suicide bomber at Forward Operating Base Chapman near the city of Khost. More details have begun to emerge about what happened in the press, but I will also give the details of what I know about this incident.

On December 30, 2009, a CIA informant claiming to have urgent information on al Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was brought to an ISAF Forward Operating Base to meet with several CIA officers. Since the informant was known an Afghan security officer drove the individual to the base and failed to conduct a search for weapons or explosives. This oversight led to the deaths of eight people and wounded several others.

The bomber was Dr. Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, a jihadist that was captured by the Jordanians, went through a rehabilitation process in Jordan, and was ultimately used by U.S. and Jordanian intelligence as an asset to infiltrate al-Qaeda in Pakistan. As is typical with these types of operations an asset turning into a double agent is a risk that runs high. It appears that al-Balawi did provide important information that led to the successful execution of several drone strikes in the Pakistani Tribal region before turning his allegiance to the Pakistani Taliban.

The Haqqani Network

At this point it appears that the attack was orchestrated by the Haqqani network. The Haqqani network is run by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Siraj Haqqani who have close ties to al-Qaeda and the Taliban movement. The following information on Jalaluddin Haqqani is from recently declassified diplomatic cables:

7. In a January 6 conversation with poloff, redacted a Taliban supporter redacted said he knows Haqqani and agrees that he is an effective military strategist. He argued that Haqqani "should be seen in his proper context and he has clear links with Islamic extremists." Warming to this theme redacted asserted that Haqqani had developed a close relationship with various radical Arab groups during the jihad. These relationships, redacted asserted, have continued and, in exchange for 'weapons and money, Haqqani is "offering shelter for various Arabs in areas of Paktia province." Brushing aside poloff's request for further information on this subject, redacted stated that he did not have the details, but that Haqqani's role with the “Arabs” is “well-known.” (Note: reporting in other channels indicate that Haqqani maintains these links.)

8. Turning to the issue of Haqqani's relationship with the Taliban, redacted concurred with Wahab's assessment that Haqqani probably did not have significant influence with the Taliban on political or social issues. "although he is a mullah," he related, "Haqqani is not considered to be a Taliban and he has little credibility with them on issues outside of the military realm." he observed that Haqqani's ties to Islamic extremists are also opposed by a number of Taliban officials, including "acting foreign minister" Ghaus. (Note: in a meeting with DCM: in early December, mullah Ghaus, when asked about Haqqani’s relationship with the Taliban, was dismissive and intimated that Haqqani was not important in the Taliban leadership hierarchy.) Nonetheless, redacted advised, “Haqqani could prove to have a negative influence on the Taliban by making them more prone to accept the advice of Islamic radicals.”

The aforementioned information came from an informant prior to 9/11. Since the Taliban were removed from power Haqqani has become a prized commander not only from his experience, but also because of his ties to multiple militant Islamic groups. In the last couple of years Siraj, Jalaluddin’s son, has taken on more responsibility in the group and is poised to inherit his father’s network. It certainly appears as if the Haqqani’s are preparing for an American exit from Afghanistan and will use their new found power to buy influence in whatever replaces the current Afghan government. The successful assassination of seven CIA officers will go a long way in accomplishing their goals, that is if they escape CIA retaliation.