The Curious Assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh

I don’t typically write on every assassination of a terrorist leader as details are often sketchy and speculation in the press is widespread. This does not mean, however, that I refrain from discussing the more notable drone strikes in Pakistan. The reason for this is simple, the means and methods of the drone strikes are known as is the party responsible. This is not always the case for covert operations, but the case of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh is different. I don’t have all the facts, but I have managed to amass enough information to discuss the assassination intelligently.

Assassinations are often believed to be used solely for leadership decapitation purposes, but while this does happen contemporary studies show that nation-states often have other plans in mind. But before we discuss the al-Mabhouh assassination it’s useful to provide an event that is historically analogous, such as that of Imad Mughniyeh, to prove this point. Mughniyeh was the Hezbollah mastermind behind the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon and several other terrorist acts across the globe. As such, Mughniyeh was wanted by several governments and was actively sought by intelligence services for years. Mughniyeh’s time came to an end via a bomb placed in the headrest of his vehicle while in Damascus. To be sure, the assassination of Mughniyeh did damage the external operations of Hezbollah, but did not destroy the organization. Then again it wasn’t expected to.

Several months before the Mughniyeh assassination, the Israeli Air Force struck and destroyed a nuclear facility being constructed in Northern Syria. These two incidents, neither of which was minor, put Syria on the defensive. Shortly thereafter, Israel and Syria began peace talks brokered by both Turkey and the U.S. While I don’t have evidence linking the airstrike and assassination to the peace talks the timing is compelling. This brings us back to the al-Mabhouh assassination.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and was currently serving as senior commander in charge of armaments. One of his recent claims to fame was orchestrating the movement of armaments and munitions from Iran, through Sudan to the Siani Peninsula, and finally through underground tunnels into the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis, finally wise to this new method of arms smuggling, launched an airstrike on March 26, 2009 against an arms convoy in Northern Sudan thus disrupting any further use of these transit points. For the Israelis this was incredibly important. After Operation Cast Lead, Israel wanted to prevent any chance Hamas had at rearming and threatening Israeli civilians in the future. This effort against arms smuggling has had a good success rate and has kept Hamas silent. The next logical step would be to remove the arms smuggler, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Just as the Mughniyeh assassination was meant to force an issue with Syria the al-Mabhouh killing was meant to hinder arms smuggling into Gaza and send a message to Iran. Here are the known operational details of the al-Mabhouh assassination available in the open source:

• Al-Mabhouh arrives in Dubai via Emirates flight AQ 912 on January 19, 2010.
• He then arrives at the Hotel Bustan Rotana at 4:30 p.m. then departed for the Iranian embassy a half hour later. At this time surveillance conducted by the assassination team convergences on the Hotel and sets up shop.
• Al-Mabhouh returns from the embassy to the hotel, room 130, at approximately 9:00 p.m.
• According to Dubai police al-Mabhouh answered a knock on his door shortly after returning and was hit with a stun gun, strangled and injected with a poison.
• Al-Mabhouh’s body was discovered in the early morning of January 20 after his wife notified Hamas officials she couldn’t reach him by phone.

While officials in Dubai were quick to point fingers at the Israeli Mossad it is clear that others were involved by the resulting arrests. Hamas has been undergoing an internal struggle and the arrests of Nahro Massoud and Mahmoud Nasser, both of Hamas, show that the assassination team may have had inside help (one Kuwaiti newspaper claims that Nahro Massoud was with al-Mabhouh near the time of his death). In the wake of these and other arrests there are indications that Dubai may want to end this investigation quickly as the Dubai police have enlisted the help of the Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence services to aid in the investigation. On its face it appears that Dubai has asked for assistance from Egypt and Jordan because it needs help in the intelligence realm, however, al-Mabhouh was wanted by both nations and they hardly want to pursue the case any further meaning the investigation is likely to hit a wall. In Europe there are some nations upset over the use of EU member passports as cover for the assassination team and not the actual assassination itself, but this too is likely to slowly fade away (two British newspapers are actually claiming that the Israelis notified the UK that this was going to happen beforehand). In the near term we can expect to see continued media coverage, but Israel has done what it set out to do – Iran, and their proxies, have been put on notice.

Photo: Dubai police compilation of alleged assassins

The Impending Battle of Marja

Now that the Super Bowl is over its back to reality. Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand’s capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

Global Instability and Rising Oil Prices

Each day that passes it seems that filling up at the pump is becoming more painful. Many oil exporting countries are currently experiencing abnormally high instability ranging from the Caucus region all the way to Sub-Saharan Africa. Here is a quick rundown:

In the mid-1990’s the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan came to a tenuous end, but things are starting to heat up again. Most of the fuss is over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan that is primarily made up of Armenians. Azerbaijan wants the territory back while Armenia feels the need to protect members of its ethnicity. The major players backing Armenia are Greece and Russia, while those backing Azerbaijan are Turkey, and from a military industrial perspective, Israel. To paraphrase one regional analyst, this is one of those regional things that could spin out control and start a third world war much like the Balkans incident that started the First World War. I doubt this will happen, but any conflict in the region could cause disruptions in the only major energy pipeline that serves Europe without traversing Russian territory.

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

The regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela is once again under attack from pro-democracy forces protesting the excesses of the Bolivarian style government. Chavez has survived these tests before, but with a crumbling infrastructure it is possible that the power grid could fail in the near future. Currently, the opposition forces are not adequately coordinated, but if things get worse the government of Venezuela would be up for grabs. Chavez has used the nation’s oil money for populous spending all the while ignoring other issues. This could come to a head relatively soon.

I’ve been discussing the Iranian nuclear standoff for some time; however defensive movements by the US followed by threats from the Iranian regime are increasing. If this standoff comes to blows it wouldn’t be beyond reason to expect Iran to cause havoc in the Strait of Hormuz which could potentially cutoff much of the world’s oil supply. February is the month to watch Iran and it won't be pretty.

A lesser known problem exists in Angola. Recently the soccer team from Togo came under attack while traveling through the oil rich Angolan enclave of Cabinda. The group most likely responsible for the attack is the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) who has been supported by elements in the two Congo’s. This is very unlikely to get out of hand, but one never knows.

It may not seem like much separately, but taken together the crude oil supply that much of the developed world has come to rely on is trapped in regions wracked by instability in the best of times or fighting seemingly endless wars in the worst of times. Unfortunately, I don’t expect anything to improve any time soon.

In Homeland Security: A New Endeavor

I have been asked, and I have accepted, a position as a contributor to the In Homeland Security Blog run by American Military University.

In Homeland Security is an American Military University (AMU) sponsored blog that features analysis and commentary on homeland security-related issues.

A network of industry experts will cover topics dealing with terrorism research, emergency preparedness and disaster response, border security, transportation and logistics, military intelligence, law enforcement, cyber security and national security.

Our intended audience is comprised of the expert-level policymakers as well as the more broad and general audience of people interested in homeland defense-related topics. The blog is non-partisan and non-commercial.

This is a great opportunity and am very pleased an academic institution would chose me for this work.