Recent violence in Yemen is the result of a decade’s long struggle between various factions that range from religious motivation to purely political struggles. It is this type of environment that al-Qaeda (and terrorists in general) likes to exploit to make reaching their goals much easier. The violence in Yemen between pro-government groups, anti-government groups, and the Shiite Muslim sect have made terrorist operations far simpler because of the preoccupation of the government to curb domestic political violence. The attack on the homes of U.S. oil experts is an attempt by the Yemeni al-Qaeda affiliate* to reestablish itself following counterinsurgent operations (as limited as they were) by the government. This violence could spill over into Saudi Arabia and possibly be a glimpse of al-Qaeda operations post-Iraq.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen have long been at odds over their common border. The first such contemporary instance took place back in the 1930’s and flared up once again following the unification of North Yemen and South Yemen in 1990. Originally the dispute was over the actual location of the border, which was settled with the 2000 Jeddah Treaty, while today tensions are primarily over the movement of Jihadists into Saudi Arabia. In an attempt to alleviate the problem, Saudi Arabia began work on a border fence that drew loud protests from the Yemeni government and several tribes that straddle the border. Saudi Arabia relented and suspended construction following mediation by Egypt and agreed to patrol the border jointly with the Yemeni military. This agreement has not solved the problem of cross border attacks against the Saudi government or foreigners in the country. It is highly likely that the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen will work with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to target Westerners and the Saudi government. Furthermore, recent protests in Yemen are likely to be infiltrated by al-Qaeda in an attempt to perpetuate violence and cause chaos.
The situation in Iraq also has an impact in Saudi Arabia. Most of the foreign fighters that fought under the al-Qaeda banner came from Saudi Arabia. This places the Saudis in a precarious situation, one that is not all that foreign to them. The Saudis and the Libyans in particular faced a crisis after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was what to do with the Jihadists returning home. Many of these fighters sought to overthrow their current regimes and replace them with more fundamentalist governments. The attempts to overthrow these governments failed and forced the Jihadists to remote parts of their home countries or seek to refuge in a foreign land. When the current generation of Jihadists return home they may not seek to target their government right away, but instead attempt to remove Western influence from their countries and attack Shiite minorities. Unfortunately this does not bode well in a Middle East that is witnessing an Iran that is becoming increasingly influential.
The Shiite minorities in Saudi Arabia primarily live in the oil rich regions in the east. This also happens to be the home to many Western oil companies as well as foreign military bases. The Sunni fighters are not alone in their militancy, however. The Saudi Hizballah has proven to be a force in Saudi Arabia and is very good at carrying out terrorist attacks. It was the Saudi Hizballah that attacked the Khobar Towers killing 19 U.S. servicemen. Currently the Saudi Hizballah does not seek to engage in violence for two reasons. The first is the current cooperation with the Saudi government (which is primarily for show so that the Saudi Hizballah can reconstitute). The second is Saudi Hizballah is taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to the situation in Iraq. If any violence between the Sunnis and the Shiites were to take place in Saudi Arabia, most of the fighting would be in the eastern provinces while terrorist attacks could occur nationwide. What is clear is that the al-Qaeda in Iraq will be forced out of the country with in the next 12 to 18 months as they have lost all local support and are completely dependant upon Iran for weapons and money. Those Jihadists returning home could complicate the delicate dance between the Sunni House of Saud and the Komeninist Shiites and shove the Middle East into tit for tat terror attacks among the two countries.
*The recent communiqués come from a group calling itself the Soldiers Brigade of Yemen. Other groups that have been identified as being apart of al-Qaeda proper in the Arabian Peninsula include the Islamic Army of Aden (IAA) and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Terrorist groups like to use several names to confuse intelligence and complicate counterinsurgency operations.
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