A Recent Spike in Terrorist Activity

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Usama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new communiqué, bin Laden had the following to say:

In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama.

"May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point US intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and state, “This phrase, ‘Peace be upon those who follow guidance,’ appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked.” This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden; however, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to ‘severe’ falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an “unusually high” number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK’s no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. After all, it is doubtful that bin Laden crawled out of his hole just to say hello.

New Threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The Middle East Media Research Institute has stated that a new post originating from Al-Falluja, a popular jihadist website, is seeking information about U.S. naval activities in the Persian Gulf region. According to MEMRI the post is asking for, “the name of the particular naval unit to be targeted, its exact location, the number of troops on board the warship and their ranks, familial status, where their families live, the type of weapons the warship carries and the number of nuclear bombs onboard.” Furthermore, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas, quoting militant sources, stated that “weapons sent to forces of the Somali government by Western countries have fallen into the hands of the mujahedeen” (most likely a reference to al-Shabaab). Al-Qabas goes on to claim that these advanced weapons have been moved to Yemen.

Threats like this are nothing new. It is not uncommon for terrorist groups or sympathetic individuals to issue threats against the U.S. under different identities using a variety of names for the same group. The purpose is to confuse intelligence services monitoring communications by overloading the analysts whose job it is to sift through the gathered information. A great example of this problem is the case of Irhaby007. Before this man was brought to justice it took the cooperation of several countries, multiple intelligence and law enforcement agencies and a few private firms to finally uncover one man’s identity. This is not to say the recently issued threat is not without merit. On the contrary, the timing of the threat and the individual believed to have posted it actually give this threat more credence. After all, terrorists are known to return to successful attacks such as the one carried out in Yemen against the USS Cole in 2000.

All told it appears as if al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula does indeed desire to strike at U.S. military targets, whether they still retain the capability following the counterterrorist operations carried out by the Yemen government is another story. According to press releases from NCIS, they are taking the threat seriously. In fact, my NCIS contact just returned from the region and confirmed his agencies stance (this contact was involved in the Cole investigation). Hopefully we’ll learn more in the coming days and weeks.

For those readers who have family members in the region the threat brings to light the intelligence threat posed by terrorist groups. The post specifically requests information on the sailors aboard the ship as well as their family. Social networking sites, such as Facebook, pose a threat to your family abroad if you give up too much information about your loved one. It is prudent that you only allow people you know to see your profile information as well as your status updates. As a counterintelligence officer I frequently look up employees in my company to see what information may be available to foreign intelligence officers looking for an easy target to exploit. It doesn’t take much to steal an identity or blackmail someone with an update that may have seemed innocuous at the time. Everybody, including family members of the military, intelligence community and defense contractors, must practice good operational security or OPSEC. The Cole bombing taught the U.S. a very important lesson – loose lips still sink ships.

Al-Qaeda in Yemen

The attempted bombing of a U.S. bound flight has brought the three-front war in Yemen to the forefront. Almost a year ago now, two former inmates of the Guantanamo military prison in Cuba resurfaced in Yemen as leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). While this was an interesting development, what is more important to note is that AQAP has managed to survive and is now operating in Yemen as opposed to Saudi Arabia. About a year and a half ago I stated that it was possible for AQAP in Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen to facilitate moving of arms, people, and launching attacks in the future. This is indeed occurring, but the al-Qaeda affiliates have decided to merge instead of maintaining autonomy. This has occurred for two reasons. The first is that Saudi Arabia encouraged these radicals to go to Iraq and fight the U.S., but when they tried to return they were persona non grata. The second reason is that Yemen is far more conducive to terrorist operations because of the deteriorating of the security environment and the proximity to another al-Qaeda entity in Somalia.

Understanding Yemen

Yemen occupies the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. This area is a geographically strategic area that facilitated trade between the sub-Saharan empires of Africa with the fluctuating empires coming from Asia prior to being conquered by the Ethiopian Empire and then by the Persians. Yemen would eventually follow suit with the rest of the Arabian Peninsula and undergo a forced conversion to Islam led by the Prophet Muhammad. In the 9th century A.D., the al-Zaydi tribe of Mesopotamia migrated and settled in the mountainous region of western Yemen around the ancient city of Sa’dah. The al- Zaydi tribe would eventually bring the indigenous tribes under their full control thus expanding their territory all the way to the Red Sea, but failing to secure the entirety of the southwest Arabian plateau. Several centuries later in 1517 the Ottoman Turks would conquer Yemen leading to occasional self rule until the Empire’s fall at the close of World War I.

Technically Yemen was an independent country after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, but several areas were actually occupied and administered by the British with the port city of Aden being the most visible. Once World War I ended, Yemen once again became an Imamate with areas under British control tied loosely together under the aegis of the Protectorate of South Arabia while the rest of the country was ruled by the Imam Yahya. Yemen would suffer from several civil wars from 1914 to 1994 both in the context of an occupying power and the ideological struggles of the Cold War. Following independence, Yemen struggled to forge a new identity and maintained an Imamate government that ruled until 1962 when the last Royalist was deposed by military officers that championed the Arab socialist movement headed by Egypt’s Nasser. At the time of the military coup, Nasser was looking to solidify his position as leader of the pan-Arab movement and nearby Yemen appeared to be fertile ground not only for spreading the revolution, but also keeping Saudi Arabia – the competing leader of the Arab world – off balance. Nasser did not waste any time sending Egyptian troops into Yemen to prop up the new government once the coup was initiated. As expected, Saudi Arabia did not take this development lightly.

The resulting civil war was fought by the Nasser backed socialists and the Saudi/Western backed Royalists. The Egyptian military soon found themselves the target of Royalist insurgents and fighters from the al Zaydi tribe that would last 5 long years and cost Egypt a military defeat in two theaters; one in Yemen and the other by Israel in the 1967 war. While the Royalist movement forced Egypt to withdraw militarily lasting divisions among the Yemeni people were drawn. With the involvement of western powers fighting a socialist movement, the Soviet Union felt compelled to move in and facilitate a Marxist movement among the remaining socialists that would divide the Yemeni state in two. The Royalists won the war against Egypt, but lost the war for a unified Yemen.

The division of Yemen significantly weakened an already poor state. The limited resources were now divided between the two states and subsequently were poorly managed. In 1989, the governments of North and South Yemen came to a compromise which resulted in unification the next year, but the damage to the economy was done. By 1994, Southern secessionists angry over wealth distribution and government corruption were once again challenging the government leading to yet another civil war. Government forces under the leadership of President Ali Abdallah Salih eventually won, but the secessionist movement in the south would not go away. Since the end of the 1994 war, the national government in Sana’a has been continually fighting the secessionists in the south and the Houthi faction of the Zaydi tribe in the north. In the midst of all of this President Salih used international militants, including al-Qaeda, to fight a war of attrition against both movements. Unfortunately for Salih, al-Qaeda had an agenda of its own.

Yemen’s Three-Front War

Yemen’s current war is certainly a challenge for the Arab state. The secessionists in the south have been protesting as usual and fortunately for Sana’a the violence has been relatively small. The Houthi rebellion in the north on the other hand is quite severe. The Houthi’s have managed to ambush and even defeat armed engagements with the Yemeni military primarily because of outside assistance. The insurgency has gotten so bad that Saudi Arabia, a nation that usually does not engage in direct combat, has sent troops across the border into Yemen to aid their southern neighbor. Further complicating matters is Hezbollah has sent fighters from Lebanon to aid the Houthi’s at the behest of Iran turning what was once a manageable rebellion into a full fledged proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran.*

In its usual style, al-Qaeda has done what it can to exploit the situation. After the two al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula nodes merged jihadists from Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, and Somalia began showing up for training and recruiting. In fact, some of the Somali suicide bombers have trained in Yemen and have definitely benefited from the wealth of experience from combat veterans. Thus, it is no surprise that the suspect that attempted to bomb a U.S. airliner trained in Yemen. In light of the failed attempt Yemeni counterterrorist units have targeted al-Qaeda militants operating in the eastern part of the country. Unfortunately, with military units fighting that Houthi’s in the north and keeping the peace with the secessionists in the south, a prolonged campaign against al-Qaeda faces some significant challenges. Indeed, the situation is dire.

The Way Forward

It is highly unlikely that the U.S. would participate overtly in any campaign against al-Qaeda in Yemen. Not only does the U.S. have multiple priorities, but Yemen is unlikely to accept any non-Arab support in any conventional operation. This does not mean however, that the U.S. will be excluded. In the last ten years the U.S. has taken an on again off again interest in Yemen starting with the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Since then the U.S. has used unmanned aircraft and naval support in targeting militants without using a substantial ground presence, although Special Forces have gone in into Yemen proper. If Washington truly feels a need to increase its involvement in Yemen it has the tools to do it. Currently the U.S. has a large military and intelligence presence in Djibouti and Saudi Arabia that are more than capable of handling sensitive, covert missions throughout the region.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is not a jihadist startup by any stretch of the imagination. It is highly likely that the more experienced members will flee to Somalia if they feel threatened and shack up with al-Shabaab. After all, these militants have done so before when they left Iraq and Afghanistan. When all is said and done the U.S. and its allies cannot completely eliminate the jihadist threat, but they can make al-Qaeda’s ability to operate and survive very difficult indeed.

*Multiple news outlets have claimed that evidence of foreign assistance in the Houthi rebellion is lacking. When looking for information from traditional news sources this may be true; however intelligence contacts in several Middle East nations have confirmed that foreign aid from Hezbollah and Iran has made it to Yemen. In fact, Hezbollah has lost several members as a result of fighting in Northern Yemen as detailed on their website.

Double Agent Kills Seven CIA Officers

In the last week multiple news outlets reported that seven CIA operatives were assassinated in Afghanistan by a suicide bomber at Forward Operating Base Chapman near the city of Khost. More details have begun to emerge about what happened in the press, but I will also give the details of what I know about this incident.

On December 30, 2009, a CIA informant claiming to have urgent information on al Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was brought to an ISAF Forward Operating Base to meet with several CIA officers. Since the informant was known an Afghan security officer drove the individual to the base and failed to conduct a search for weapons or explosives. This oversight led to the deaths of eight people and wounded several others.

The bomber was Dr. Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, a jihadist that was captured by the Jordanians, went through a rehabilitation process in Jordan, and was ultimately used by U.S. and Jordanian intelligence as an asset to infiltrate al-Qaeda in Pakistan. As is typical with these types of operations an asset turning into a double agent is a risk that runs high. It appears that al-Balawi did provide important information that led to the successful execution of several drone strikes in the Pakistani Tribal region before turning his allegiance to the Pakistani Taliban.

The Haqqani Network

At this point it appears that the attack was orchestrated by the Haqqani network. The Haqqani network is run by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Siraj Haqqani who have close ties to al-Qaeda and the Taliban movement. The following information on Jalaluddin Haqqani is from recently declassified diplomatic cables:

7. In a January 6 conversation with poloff, redacted a Taliban supporter redacted said he knows Haqqani and agrees that he is an effective military strategist. He argued that Haqqani "should be seen in his proper context and he has clear links with Islamic extremists." Warming to this theme redacted asserted that Haqqani had developed a close relationship with various radical Arab groups during the jihad. These relationships, redacted asserted, have continued and, in exchange for 'weapons and money, Haqqani is "offering shelter for various Arabs in areas of Paktia province." Brushing aside poloff's request for further information on this subject, redacted stated that he did not have the details, but that Haqqani's role with the “Arabs” is “well-known.” (Note: reporting in other channels indicate that Haqqani maintains these links.)

8. Turning to the issue of Haqqani's relationship with the Taliban, redacted concurred with Wahab's assessment that Haqqani probably did not have significant influence with the Taliban on political or social issues. "although he is a mullah," he related, "Haqqani is not considered to be a Taliban and he has little credibility with them on issues outside of the military realm." he observed that Haqqani's ties to Islamic extremists are also opposed by a number of Taliban officials, including "acting foreign minister" Ghaus. (Note: in a meeting with DCM: in early December, mullah Ghaus, when asked about Haqqani’s relationship with the Taliban, was dismissive and intimated that Haqqani was not important in the Taliban leadership hierarchy.) Nonetheless, redacted advised, “Haqqani could prove to have a negative influence on the Taliban by making them more prone to accept the advice of Islamic radicals.”

The aforementioned information came from an informant prior to 9/11. Since the Taliban were removed from power Haqqani has become a prized commander not only from his experience, but also because of his ties to multiple militant Islamic groups. In the last couple of years Siraj, Jalaluddin’s son, has taken on more responsibility in the group and is poised to inherit his father’s network. It certainly appears as if the Haqqani’s are preparing for an American exit from Afghanistan and will use their new found power to buy influence in whatever replaces the current Afghan government. The successful assassination of seven CIA officers will go a long way in accomplishing their goals, that is if they escape CIA retaliation.