The following is based upon trends that are I expect to take place in the coming year. I will discuss possible outcomes of current trends and offer a few predictions. Most topics will be discussed by country located in the Middle East, but not every country or movement will be covered.
Middle East
Israel-Palestine
Since the Israeli air raids on Gaza are dominating the headlines we can start with the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has had a temporary cease fire with Hamas controlled Gaza for the last 16 months; however rocket attacks originating from Gaza has forced the Israeli government to respond. In contrast to the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah-Hamas war, Israel only has one front to deal with and thus little incentive to stop the current operation. Although Israel engaged in a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, the goals of the operation have not been clearly and thus success cannot be determined. The likely outcome is that Hamas will be hurt but not completely destroyed. In the West Bank we can expect to see the Fatah movement gain strength at the expense of Hamas. Hamas is a terrorist group without any experience governing and it shows in this current crisis. Israel will continue along the status quo with a few interventions by western politicians trying to bring peace. The wildcard for Israel in 2009 will be Hezbollah; it is very possible another war with the Lebanese terror group could breakout.
Syria-Lebanon
Syria has been working with the Europeans and Turkey to hammer out a peace deal with Israel. As I have argued before, Syria has lost its most recent patron – Iran – and now must look to other avenues for economic growth. For this to work Syria must drop the rogue regime act, recognize Lebanon as an independent nation, and reign in terrorist groups (i.e. Hezbollah) that operate under Syria’s watch. Once this is accomplished a peace deal with Israel is a very real possibility in the next two to three years.
The biggest challenge for Syria is Hezbollah. Hezbollah has grown significantly and has proven it can intimidate the Lebanese government and threaten Israel conventionally. The onus is on Damascus to weaken Hezbollah to the point that is cannot threaten the Lebanese government or Israel. In the middle of all this is Lebanon. Lebanon is a country fractured by warfare from a variety of sectarian groups and only knows order when a third party intervenes. Previously that third party had been the Syrians, but that changed with the March 14th democratic movement. Unfortunately, the existence of Hezbollah and the devastation that resulted from the 2006 war with Israel has brought nothing but trouble for this experiment in democracy. For Lebanon to become a stable nation it will take the dismantling of Hezbollah and substantial outside assistance. Since this is unlikely to happen in the coming year Lebanon will be forced to continue limping along. Syria’s fortunes on the other hand are completely dependent upon third party diplomacy and the resolution of the Israeli political mess.
Turkey
Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, Turkey has managed to spread its influence in Iraq, Syria, and even Iran. Turkey has also opened the door towards reconciliation with Albania – a very sensitive topic as the U.S. congress recently found out. The reasoning behind Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives are two-fold, one is looking for alternative oil and natural gas avenues for supplying Europe to break the Russian monopoly on hydrocarbons, and two Turkey looks for any way it can to piss off the Russians despite the two nations being trading partners. Look for Turkey to come out of the global financial crisis stronger and more relevant in the Middle East and Europe.
Iraq
Throughout history the one factor that has started more wars than other is simple geography. Therefore it is no coincidence that Iraq, considered the birthplace of civilization, will be a powerful nation. In the past, wars over this piece of real estate came down to simple location. Iraq was a source of water and all major trade routes went through this area. Today water is still an important resource, but coupled with large oil reserves and other natural resources Iraq stands poised to once again become the regional power player in the ME.
The last five years in Iraq have seen shifting political loyalties with the numerous tribes throwing their lot in with whoever had the most money or guns. But as the U.S. surge went on the Iraqi government has managed to consolidate power through numerous backroom deals. The Iraqi security forces have also gained from the political progress and have become largely self reliant. Perhaps the issue that is most pressing in the U.S. – Iraqi relationship is the future role that the U.S. military will play. On the ground the Iraqis are steady improving militarily, but are still lacking a meaningful air force and have only recently begun training for casualty evacuation. What does look promising is the potential sales of the M-1 Abrams main battle tank to the Iraqi military. If the U.S. is not directly involved in security operations the sales of equipment may prove to be the decisive factor for the central government of Iraq to hold the country together.
Iraq has seen great improvement both on the economic and security fronts, but still has room for improvement. Unemployment is high and security operations are still ongoing in parts of the nation. While al-Qaeda has had its presence in Iraq diminished significantly, the organization still poses a threat. But these challenges can be overcome. The high price of oil this summer together with the increased production out of Iraq has helped boost the popularity of the government. The Prime Minister has personally walked around Baghdad handing out money on several occasions. Gestures such as this will only help to solidify the position of the government. The high price of oil may have been a positive for Iraq but the country still must meet the challenge of diversifying its economy and fostering foreign investment if it is to live up to the countries potential of being a regional powerhouse.
Iran
Iran is in bad shape economically. Inflation is around 20 percent, unemployment is in the double digits, and 18 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty. The Iranian nuclear program has increased these problems by bringing international sanctions against Iranian banks and its wealthiest citizens. Additional problems include government sponsored gas subsidies in the face of high oil prices. Now that oil prices have fallen, Iran has been forced to rewrite its budget for 2009. Iran may be a top exporter of petroleum, but is also a major importer of refined products such as gasoline. In other words, Iran is increasingly vulnerable to international pressure and possibly revolution.
With Iran as isolated as it is and with international sanctions steadily increasing over the nuclear program one would think that military action is inevitable when in fact the opposite is true. Israel has made statements that it will not allow Iran to construct a nuclear weapon and will use force to stop it, but it lacks the military capability to do so. A U.S. led operation is really the only possibility should a military confrontation with Iran take place. The Pentagon has stated that it could destroy the Iranian military in three days, but the U.S. does not see Iran as much of a threat and thus will not make a move in the near future. Even without military action taken against it and new elections coming in the spring, 2009 will be a very bad year for Tehran.
Saudi Arabia
The rapid increase and subsequent decrease in oil prices has not hurt the Saudi Kingdom. In fact, the low oil prices are working to keep Saudi Arabia’s main rival – Iran – weak. Currently the Saudi’s have a cash reserve of about one trillion U.S. dollars and is looking to put that money to use in areas such as expanding oil production or supporting Chechen rebels against Russia. If the Saudi’s are able to expand their proven oil reserves and construct new storage facilities the country will have the ability to cut oil prices overnight to hurt Iran. The biggest challenge for Riyadh in the coming year is to keep Russian adventures in the Middle East in check. The House of Saud enjoys their current situation and don’t want the Russians mucking things up. All in all expect Saudi Arabia to have a good 2009.
Arab Gulf States (sans Saudi Arabia)
The Arab Gulf States are comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia was considered separate because of the size of its economy and importance globally. In the case of the remaining states all have small populations and large incomes thanks to large petroleum reserves and a steady stream of foreign investment. It is unlikely that any major changes will take place in any of these nations and should continue to be safe for business development and other investment.
Yemen
The country of Yemen is in trouble. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has made a return thanks to the release of members from Guantanamo. Because of the complexity of Yemen a full analysis will follow.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam: A Primer
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or LTTE for short, is a separatist group based in Sri Lanka that has been fighting the majority Buddhist Sinhalese Government of the island nation since 1983. While the group was founded in 1976, it is the LTTE ambush of a military patrol that killed 13 in 1983 that is seen as the first battle of the civil war in Sri Lanka. In 2002, the LTTE and the government signed a cease-fire agreement that temporarily ended the violence only to see tensions erupt again in 2006 over the distribution of international aid that poured into the country after the 2004 tsunami. It is true that the LTTE have participated in peace talks; however their deliberate targeting of civilians and oppressive rule in the areas that group controls is what earns the Tigers the moniker of international terrorist organization. A 1999 estimate of deaths resulting from the fighting between the government and the LTTE came to about 60,000.
Leadership in the group is broken down into two tiers which include a military wing and a political wing that is subordinate. The leader and founder of the LTTE, Velupillai Prabhakaran, heads the central governing committee that oversees both wings. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, the central governing committee is also responsible for directing and controlling several specific subdivisions, including, an amphibious group (the Sea Tigers), an airborne group, (known as the Air Tigers), an elite fighting wing (known as the Charles Anthony Regiment), a suicide commando unit (the Black Tigers), a highly secretive intelligence group and a political office headed by Thamilselvam and Anton Balasingham, widely regarded to be the political advisor and ideologue of the LTTE. Additionally, the central governing committee has an international wing which runs the group’s global infrastructure. In all, the group is comprised of about 16,000 people according to the Sri Lankan government. Children soldiers are often forcibly recruited into the group to keep the number of members high.
The LTTE are unique among terrorist groups for several reasons among which are: The ability to govern provinces in the north and east of their home nation, the existence of an air force and navy (these elements are small but very effective), and the tactical capabilities to directly engage government troops. Perhaps the most startling revelation about the group is their invention of the suicide bomber vest and belt. In fact, while we often link suicide bombing to Palestinian terrorist groups it was the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) that dispatched several members to Sri Lanka in the 1980’s to learn this tactic for use against Israel. This tactic pioneered in the remote jungles of Sri Lanka has now become a nearly universally adopted weapon employed by terrorists around the world.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have also proven to be quite adept in the art of assassination. For instance, the LTTE assassinated Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi when peace keepers from India arrived in Sri Lanka to offer counterinsurgency aid to the local military. The LTTE also managed to kill Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993. Others assassinated by the LTTE include:
In recent months the Sri Lankan government has managed to cause significant damage to the group via military and financial means. Since the beginning of the U.S. led War on Terror, terrorist groups that are designated as such by the U.S. State Department will be targeted financially through new legislation in countries allied with the U.S. and through the U.N. While these measures have hurt the group in countries where it used to operate freely, the LTTE has used illicit means, such as drug running, to augment their income. These measures have aided the Sri Lankan government greatly in their twenty plus war with the group. It should be noted however, that the LTTE has managed to survive international pressure and infighting throughout its 32 year history and will not go away quietly.
Today, government forces have managed to capture the de facto capital of the Tamal separatists in the northern part of the country. This is a significant blow to the terrorist organization, but a political solution is still needed to bring peace to a country that has been in a perpetual state of war for nearly forty years.
Leadership in the group is broken down into two tiers which include a military wing and a political wing that is subordinate. The leader and founder of the LTTE, Velupillai Prabhakaran, heads the central governing committee that oversees both wings. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, the central governing committee is also responsible for directing and controlling several specific subdivisions, including, an amphibious group (the Sea Tigers), an airborne group, (known as the Air Tigers), an elite fighting wing (known as the Charles Anthony Regiment), a suicide commando unit (the Black Tigers), a highly secretive intelligence group and a political office headed by Thamilselvam and Anton Balasingham, widely regarded to be the political advisor and ideologue of the LTTE. Additionally, the central governing committee has an international wing which runs the group’s global infrastructure. In all, the group is comprised of about 16,000 people according to the Sri Lankan government. Children soldiers are often forcibly recruited into the group to keep the number of members high.
The LTTE are unique among terrorist groups for several reasons among which are: The ability to govern provinces in the north and east of their home nation, the existence of an air force and navy (these elements are small but very effective), and the tactical capabilities to directly engage government troops. Perhaps the most startling revelation about the group is their invention of the suicide bomber vest and belt. In fact, while we often link suicide bombing to Palestinian terrorist groups it was the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) that dispatched several members to Sri Lanka in the 1980’s to learn this tactic for use against Israel. This tactic pioneered in the remote jungles of Sri Lanka has now become a nearly universally adopted weapon employed by terrorists around the world.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have also proven to be quite adept in the art of assassination. For instance, the LTTE assassinated Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi when peace keepers from India arrived in Sri Lanka to offer counterinsurgency aid to the local military. The LTTE also managed to kill Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993. Others assassinated by the LTTE include:
Alfred Duraiyappah, mayor of Jaffna in the attack that brought them to prominence in 1975
Ranjan Wijeratne, Sri Lankan cabinet minister, former general, and the Minister of Defense
Lalith Athulathmudali, Sri Lankan cabinet minister
Gamini Dissanayake, Sri Lankan presidential candidate
Major Gen. Parami Kulatunga, third-highest ranking officer in the Sri Lankan Army
Lakshman Kadirgamar, Sri Lankan foreign minister, lawyer and international humanitarian
In recent months the Sri Lankan government has managed to cause significant damage to the group via military and financial means. Since the beginning of the U.S. led War on Terror, terrorist groups that are designated as such by the U.S. State Department will be targeted financially through new legislation in countries allied with the U.S. and through the U.N. While these measures have hurt the group in countries where it used to operate freely, the LTTE has used illicit means, such as drug running, to augment their income. These measures have aided the Sri Lankan government greatly in their twenty plus war with the group. It should be noted however, that the LTTE has managed to survive international pressure and infighting throughout its 32 year history and will not go away quietly.
Today, government forces have managed to capture the de facto capital of the Tamal separatists in the northern part of the country. This is a significant blow to the terrorist organization, but a political solution is still needed to bring peace to a country that has been in a perpetual state of war for nearly forty years.
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