The Death of Baitullah Mehsud

The death of Baitullah Mehsud has finally been confirmed by the Pakistani Taliban (the Pakistani Taliban is also known by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP). This comes almost a month after the CIA struck Baitullah’s father in law’s compound killing the militant leader and one of his wives. Initially, the U.S. refrained from admitting the target and confirming Baitullah’s death, but the Pakistanis did not possess such qualms. For their part, the TTP continued to claim that Baitullah was not killed in the attack, but was instead ill. Furthermore the Pakistanis were claiming that his death resulted in a shootout during a shura meeting where discussions over Baitullah’s replacement were taking place. It was in the midst of these claims and counter claims that prevented more timely analysis.

What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.

While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.

Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.

*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.


Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.

Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.