The Somali Connection

"We judge the terrorist threat to US interests in East Africa, primarily from Al Qaida and Al Qaida-affiliated Islamic extremists in Somalia and Kenya, will increase in the next year as Al Qaida's East Africa network continues to plot operations against U.S., Western, and local targets and the influence of the Somalia-based terrorist group Al Shabaab grows. Given the high-profile U.S. role in the region and its perceived direction-in the minds of Al Qaida and local extremists-of foreign intervention in Somalia, we assess U.S. counterterrorism efforts will be challenged not only by the Al Qaida operatives in the Horn, but also by Somali extremists and increasing numbers of foreign fighters supporting Al Shabaab's efforts."

National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009

Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.

Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.

Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.