Iran Moves to a War Footing

While the bulk of this article will be about recent Iranian moves, we will start with Israel. When it was leaked to the press that Israeli PM Netanyahu confronted the Russians with a list of scientists helping the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon a small but important statement was overlooked. In the article former assistant defense minister Ephraim Sneh stated that, “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike – if we are left alone, we will act alone.” This is an interesting, and yet strange statement because, if true, it could serve to undermine the element of surprise necessary for an attack to be carried out. It appears that statement was made not to warn of an impending strike, but rather to force the U.S. to push harder for sanctions.

Dr. Ephraim Sneh is a career politician who currently does not hold any official office or position within the current government which begs the question, why would Sneh be the one to issue such a forceful statement? The best reason for this may be because Sneh is not a part of the current government. This would allow the Israelis to issue a threat with deniability; after all Israel is a small country and politicians still retain certain power even if they do not hold an official position. Furthermore, the target of this statement may not be Iran, but rather the U.S. Israel was promised that if diplomacy failed the U.S. would lead the charge to implement crippling sanctions against Iran, or more precisely, sanctions against Iranian gasoline imports. Currently, Iran is a net importer of gasoline because the country lacks the refining capability needed to convert domestically produced crude oil into commercial gasoline.

But there is a severe problem with this plan. The UN Security Council would have to vote unanimously to implement sanctions that would work. Two permanent members, Russia and China, have already stated they would vote against such a measure. The U.S. and Europe could implement the sanctions unilaterally, but Russia could singlehandedly provide Iran with all the gasoline it needs very easily making unilateral sanctions useless. It would appear that if the current attempts at diplomacy fail, an Israeli strike would be inevitable.

This may serve to explain current Iranian activities. Recently, Iran trained 250 Hezbollah paramilitary members on several missile systems in the event of war with Israel. These missiles have a longer range and should be able to strike most cities in the Jewish state. Making matters worse is a report from the Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida which states that Syria recently moved one quarter of its medium and long range missile arsenal to Lebanon. Coming on the heels of all of this is the Iranian incursion into Iraq which clearly shows that Iran will not wait around to be hit militarily or by sanctions. Iran is very publically moving to a war footing.

Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran have not publicly given any clear indication as to what would force armed conflict, but what is known is that diplomacy is failing rapidly. The December 25 date may be political theater, but then again with Iran preparing for war Israel may be forced to act sooner rather than later. These activities only serve to leave the U.S. in the cold and at the mercy of other nations to determine when and where a conflict will occur. Whatever the outcome neither bodes well for any country involved.