U.S. has Contingency Plan for Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

When I wrote about bin Laden’s call to attack Pakistan and more recently about the probability of a civil war in that nation, the one thing that I sought to highlight is Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. I’m pleased that it only took a couple of weeks for the media and government officials around the world to begin discussing the possibility of these weapons falling into the wrong hands. Thankfully some folks in the Pentagon have put together a plan to deal with this problem should it arise. One of the articles I came across quoted a U.S. official as saying that the whereabouts of some of the weapons are unknown. If this is indeed fact, then unfortunately it may already be too late.

The Pakistani army is, for the most part, responsible for the safeguarding of the nuclear arsenal and it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to say that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has many supporters of the Taliban, is also involved. While the involvement of the ISI is almost certainly a problem in any contingency plan; the low moral of the army is another factor that may lead to trouble. The army has taken severe casualties fighting in the tribal areas where al-Qaeda and the Taliban currently reside and could fracture in the face of a political upheaval. One of the few things holding the army together is Musharraf’s desire to continue to wear his army uniform. If Musharraf decides to remove himself from the army, as many dimwitted talking heads in the west are telling him to do, it is very possible that the forces aligned against him would view this as a sign of weakness and try to topple his government. I do not believe that the pro-democracy forces in Pakistan stand a chance against the militant Islamists in the region. In fact, I’m not sure how Bhutto is still alive and am fairly certain she won’t be around much longer. The day she returned to Pakistan an attempted assassination via suicide bomber ended up killing 136.

In the face of anarchy in Pakistan and the fracture of the army, the U.S. would have to rely on military commanders opposed to the Islamists or intelligence from nations such as India and the U.K. to hunt down the nuclear arsenal to keep it out of the Islamists hands. The contingency plan for this scenario is still classified and the only thing I can do is speculate as to how the operation could play out. At this point it’s the only thing anyone can do.

As to the ISI having pro-Taliban and pro-al Qaeda elements in the ranks one thing should be mentioned. Prior to 9/11, the head of the ISI, Mahmoud Ahmed, order Omar Sheik to wire 100,000 dollars to Mohammad Atta, one of the hijackers that carried out the attacks. Once this was reported by the Wall Street Journal, Ahmed was forced out of his position. The 9/11 commission did not investigate this connection.

In other news: A women who immigrated to the U.S. and overstayed her visa has pleaded guilty to charges of using falsified documents to obtain employment with the FBI as a special agent and also with the CIA. She managed to obtain a security clearance and used the information in the FBI and CIA databases to find out what the U.S. had on her family. She is also charged with tax evasion and sending the proceeds to Hezbollah. Sleep tight!