Hezbollah in the Sinai

Egyptian security forces have arrested 26 people that may have been a part of a Hezbollah cell in the Sinai Peninsula placed to launch terrorist attacks against tourists and smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The Egyptian government claims that this is only half of the cell and continues security operations in an attempt to apprehend the rest of the group. Hassan Nasrallah – Hezbollah Secretary General – claimed that the cell only numbered ten and was put in place for the sole purpose of smuggling weapons into Gaza. This situation, while meant to boost Hezbollah’s standing prior to Lebanese election and in the Arab world at large, could have the opposite effect. Egypt has seen itself as the leader of the Arab world since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and is looking to reassert itself in the Arab world and stop the spread of Iran’s influence. Right now Tehran’s militant proxy is in the sights of Cairo.

During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.

As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.

This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.

Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.

Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.

Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.