Syria’s Last Strategic Option

The last couple of years have been tough on the al-Assad regime in Syria. But before we can discuss the current realities faced by Damascus we first must understand the geography that influences the Middle East and the unstable politics that make the conflicts in the region what they are today. Syria has long been on the end of something I call rogue regime row which stretched from Afghanistan in the east across Iran and Iraq and finally ending with Syria bordering the Mediterranean in the west. Each of these nations contained dynamics that were opposed to their neighbors and thus created an environment that was made up of minor actors that could only antagonize each other through proxies without one ever coming out on top. This is one of the main reasons that the Middle East is a prime berthing ground for terrorism. The 9/11 attacks upset this strange balance.

With the ensuing occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq by the United States, Damascus was forced to find a large power to ensure their survival. The first option was Iran, but in the face of a stabilizing Iraq this arrangement became impossible. Further adding to the problems of the alliance was disagreements over Hezbollah and the large ideological divide between the two nations didn’t help either. Without a strong backer Syria became isolated.

Prior to the Iranian-Syrian alliance becoming strained was the boneheaded move by Damascus to assassinate former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. This move caused the major Western powers to respond by demanding a full withdrawal of all Syrian troops from Lebanon. Syria attempted to resist, but with the odds were greatly stacked against them. In the end Damascus was forced to move out and in the process lose their most promising economic interests. The weak alliance with Iran and the Hariri assassination brought international scrutiny in the face of declining oil revenues and surging economic problems. Syria is without the ability to remain a rogue regime and must join the international community if the Assad regime is to survive; it is Syria’s last remaining option.

Turkey and the Israeli-Syrian Peace Talks

Turkey has been playing the role of matchmaker in the preliminary talks between Syria and Israel for several reasons. Perhaps the most pressing is setting up a stable south when the U.S. completely pulls out of Iraq. Other than dealing with the militant Kurdish forces of Northern Iraq, Turkey also wants to create a stable region on the coast of the Mediterranean. Crafting a peace deal between Tel Aviv and Damascus would go a long way to accomplishing this. Turkey is also working out an energy deal with Syria that would help both countries economically and provide energy to Europe that would bypass a resurgent Russia. This is something the Europeans are desperate for and both Syria and Turkey are in prime position to offer this alternative.

The Israeli-Syrian talks have continued in fits and starts in the face of many challenges. Both nations have much to gain from a peace deal in the form of security for Israel and continuance of the Assad regime in Syria. As is usually the case with diplomatic talks the nations involved will work against and with each other behind the scenes to push negotiations in their favor. This is most likely what resulted in the Mugniyeh assassination. Needless to say Hezbollah was not pleased with the Syrian move and are worried that an Israeli-Syrian deal would mean the loss of Syria as a patron and the money and arms that go with it.

The moves that Syria had to undertake as a condition of talks with Israel did not bode well for the regime. Other than Hezbollah, Syria has also played host to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and removing these elements is not something that is easily done. After the Mugniyeh assassination, the head of Syrian Intelligence and al-Assad’s brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat, was place under house arrest. It is believed that he was planning a coup and sought the help of the CIA after a meeting in Turkey. The CIA turned him down.

Al-Assad’s Attempt to Curry Russian Favor

Assad saw an opportunity in the Russian invasion of Georgia to curry favor with Moscow in an attempt to bolster its standing in the talks with Israel. Syria had offered to house Russian missiles to counter the missiles the U.S. was planning on placing in Poland and also a naval station in the Mediterranean. The Russian President, Dmitri Medvedev, turned him down on all counts most likely because the Israelis got there first. It appears that the Russian decision hinged on a deal with Israel that prevented the Israelis from selling weapons to Georgia as long as Russia did not sell weapons to Syria.

The Last Option

Syria has one move left – a peace deal with Israel. Since Russia isn’t interested and Iran is too far away to project any military power in defense of Damascus Syria is forced to play nice. However, not all is lost and the recent developments with Lebanon certainly help. Syria needs Lebanon far more that the other way around which is why the two nations have finally agreed to establish full diplomatic recognition. Damascus has long viewed Lebanon as a Syrian province so this move is significant.This gives the Syrians the ability to tap back into Lebanon economically while offering Beirut the ability to hurt Hezbollah. This is something that Israel wants and Lebanon could use. Hezbollah has brought nothing but misery to Lebanon and the Israeli-Syrian deal will hurt the terror organization significantly – not to mention Hamas and PIJ. Al-Assad seems to recognize the need to drop the rogue act and join in the international economy. Without significant foreign investment the Syrian economy will continue on its downward dive and the al-Assad regime days will be numbered.