While the bulk of this article will be about recent Iranian moves, we will start with Israel. When it was leaked to the press that Israeli PM Netanyahu confronted the Russians with a list of scientists helping the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon a small but important statement was overlooked. In the article former assistant defense minister Ephraim Sneh stated that, “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike – if we are left alone, we will act alone.” This is an interesting, and yet strange statement because, if true, it could serve to undermine the element of surprise necessary for an attack to be carried out. It appears that statement was made not to warn of an impending strike, but rather to force the U.S. to push harder for sanctions.
Dr. Ephraim Sneh is a career politician who currently does not hold any official office or position within the current government which begs the question, why would Sneh be the one to issue such a forceful statement? The best reason for this may be because Sneh is not a part of the current government. This would allow the Israelis to issue a threat with deniability; after all Israel is a small country and politicians still retain certain power even if they do not hold an official position. Furthermore, the target of this statement may not be Iran, but rather the U.S. Israel was promised that if diplomacy failed the U.S. would lead the charge to implement crippling sanctions against Iran, or more precisely, sanctions against Iranian gasoline imports. Currently, Iran is a net importer of gasoline because the country lacks the refining capability needed to convert domestically produced crude oil into commercial gasoline.
But there is a severe problem with this plan. The UN Security Council would have to vote unanimously to implement sanctions that would work. Two permanent members, Russia and China, have already stated they would vote against such a measure. The U.S. and Europe could implement the sanctions unilaterally, but Russia could singlehandedly provide Iran with all the gasoline it needs very easily making unilateral sanctions useless. It would appear that if the current attempts at diplomacy fail, an Israeli strike would be inevitable.
This may serve to explain current Iranian activities. Recently, Iran trained 250 Hezbollah paramilitary members on several missile systems in the event of war with Israel. These missiles have a longer range and should be able to strike most cities in the Jewish state. Making matters worse is a report from the Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida which states that Syria recently moved one quarter of its medium and long range missile arsenal to Lebanon. Coming on the heels of all of this is the Iranian incursion into Iraq which clearly shows that Iran will not wait around to be hit militarily or by sanctions. Iran is very publically moving to a war footing.
Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran have not publicly given any clear indication as to what would force armed conflict, but what is known is that diplomacy is failing rapidly. The December 25 date may be political theater, but then again with Iran preparing for war Israel may be forced to act sooner rather than later. These activities only serve to leave the U.S. in the cold and at the mercy of other nations to determine when and where a conflict will occur. Whatever the outcome neither bodes well for any country involved.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Somali Connection
"We judge the terrorist threat to US interests in East Africa, primarily from Al Qaida and Al Qaida-affiliated Islamic extremists in Somalia and Kenya, will increase in the next year as Al Qaida's East Africa network continues to plot operations against U.S., Western, and local targets and the influence of the Somalia-based terrorist group Al Shabaab grows. Given the high-profile U.S. role in the region and its perceived direction-in the minds of Al Qaida and local extremists-of foreign intervention in Somalia, we assess U.S. counterterrorism efforts will be challenged not only by the Al Qaida operatives in the Horn, but also by Somali extremists and increasing numbers of foreign fighters supporting Al Shabaab's efforts."
National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009
Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.
Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.
Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.
National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009
Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.
Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.
Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line
The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.
In a recent address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Obama stated that U.S. intelligence had been monitoring the construction of another uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom, Iran. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the existence of this nuclear facility was known as far back as 2006 – one year before the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate upon which my previous analysis was based. The construction of an enrichment facility on a military installation hardly fits into a civil nuclear program and is not an occurrence that one could easily over look when drafting an NIE. The bottom line is that the crisis over the Iranian nuclear weapons was not resolved, but simply put on hold because the U.S. needed Iranian cooperation in Iraq.
It is now two years later and the crisis has once again come to the forefront with all trends and indicators pointing towards war with Iran. Although the Iranians have agreed to allow inspections of the new facility by the IAEA, it is unlikely that anything substantial will result. In fact, the inspections are completely meaningless because uranium can go through the enrichment process at different facilities and leave the inspectors chasing ghosts and rumors. But a nuclear weapons program is far more complex than creating the needed nuclear fuel. The real aspects of the program lay within experimentation with the simultaneous detonation of precisely manufactured conventional explosives. These explosives, commonly known as a shaped charged, are arranged around the outside of the nuclear material in a pattern that resembles a soccer ball. Creating and manufacturing these materials are by far the most difficult aspect of any nuclear weapons program, not to mention the full scale assembly and production of a nuclear device.
Iran, with a little help from several Russian scientists (this information was recently leaked by Israeli intelligence – they know the Russians by name and claim they were sent by the Russian government), seems to have overcome these obstacles. The Associated Press recently disclosed information from a classified IAEA document which stated the following:
• The IAEA's assessment that Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload "that is quite likely to be nuclear."
• That Iran engaged in "probable testing" of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead — a method known as a "full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system."
• An assessment that Iran worked on developing a system "for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge" of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.
• The agency ... assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel.
With this information it does indeed appear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and this poses a serious problem – the west, a majority of Arab nations, and perhaps the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel do not want this to happen. In the face of such opposition one would think Iran would abandon such a program to avoid isolation, but Tehran currently has Russian and Chinese backing – at least for now. Additionally, the Iranians, along with the Russians, view Obama as a weak president who will not use military force to destroy their nuclear facilities. Tehran also believes that the Israelis do not have the military capability of striking and destroying their dispersed nuclear program. In essence, the Iranians believe, albeit wrongly, that they can pursue a nuclear weapons program unencumbered.
Israel has stated that they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but the red line that Iran would have to cross before the Israelis took action is unknown. Israel does have some military options to target the known fixed locations of the nuclear program, but none of these are very promising. Unfortunately, these options would only delay the Iranian program and not destroy it. Knowing full well the limitations of its military power it is unlikely that Israel will be dissuaded from taking action. Many attribute Israel’s heavy reliance on military power to memories of the holocaust, while this may be accurate up to a point it does little to explain the nature of the Israeli state. Israel is a small, densely populated country which means that the Jewish nation lacks strategic depth. Any large sustained conventional attack against the country would be devastating meaning that escalation to a nuclear exchange with another country is unthinkable.
While we may not know at what point an attack against the Iranian nuclear sites will occur we can be sure that Iran will respond. The Iranian military is not very sophisticated nor is it able to project force beyond Iran’s borders, but Tehran has other tools at its disposal. First and foremost is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is a special military force charged with protecting the revolution and supporting the clerical regime. Most notably however, is the training that the IRGC gives to terrorist groups worldwide. By training and funding global terrorism Iran is able to strike at its enemies worldwide as evidenced by attacks as far away as Europe and South America. Perhaps the most notable of Iranian terrorist proxies is the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in terrorist and conventional fighting against Israel. It is highly likely that Hezbollah would be used in the first response to an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran could also use its missile arsenal with conventional warheads to strike directly at Israel, but these missiles have been unreliable and may not be able to penetrate Israel’s missile defense system. In an act of defiance or desperation Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz; an act that would affect 40% of the world’s oil supply. While the Iranians believe that Obama is a weak president such an act in the middle of a tepid global economic recovery would force the U.S. to respond militarily to open the Strait, thus leading to a wider war. These are the current trends, none of which will lead to a desirable conclusion.
In a recent address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Obama stated that U.S. intelligence had been monitoring the construction of another uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom, Iran. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the existence of this nuclear facility was known as far back as 2006 – one year before the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate upon which my previous analysis was based. The construction of an enrichment facility on a military installation hardly fits into a civil nuclear program and is not an occurrence that one could easily over look when drafting an NIE. The bottom line is that the crisis over the Iranian nuclear weapons was not resolved, but simply put on hold because the U.S. needed Iranian cooperation in Iraq.
It is now two years later and the crisis has once again come to the forefront with all trends and indicators pointing towards war with Iran. Although the Iranians have agreed to allow inspections of the new facility by the IAEA, it is unlikely that anything substantial will result. In fact, the inspections are completely meaningless because uranium can go through the enrichment process at different facilities and leave the inspectors chasing ghosts and rumors. But a nuclear weapons program is far more complex than creating the needed nuclear fuel. The real aspects of the program lay within experimentation with the simultaneous detonation of precisely manufactured conventional explosives. These explosives, commonly known as a shaped charged, are arranged around the outside of the nuclear material in a pattern that resembles a soccer ball. Creating and manufacturing these materials are by far the most difficult aspect of any nuclear weapons program, not to mention the full scale assembly and production of a nuclear device.
Iran, with a little help from several Russian scientists (this information was recently leaked by Israeli intelligence – they know the Russians by name and claim they were sent by the Russian government), seems to have overcome these obstacles. The Associated Press recently disclosed information from a classified IAEA document which stated the following:
• The IAEA's assessment that Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload "that is quite likely to be nuclear."
• That Iran engaged in "probable testing" of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead — a method known as a "full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system."
• An assessment that Iran worked on developing a system "for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge" of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.
• The agency ... assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel.
With this information it does indeed appear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and this poses a serious problem – the west, a majority of Arab nations, and perhaps the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel do not want this to happen. In the face of such opposition one would think Iran would abandon such a program to avoid isolation, but Tehran currently has Russian and Chinese backing – at least for now. Additionally, the Iranians, along with the Russians, view Obama as a weak president who will not use military force to destroy their nuclear facilities. Tehran also believes that the Israelis do not have the military capability of striking and destroying their dispersed nuclear program. In essence, the Iranians believe, albeit wrongly, that they can pursue a nuclear weapons program unencumbered.
Israel has stated that they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but the red line that Iran would have to cross before the Israelis took action is unknown. Israel does have some military options to target the known fixed locations of the nuclear program, but none of these are very promising. Unfortunately, these options would only delay the Iranian program and not destroy it. Knowing full well the limitations of its military power it is unlikely that Israel will be dissuaded from taking action. Many attribute Israel’s heavy reliance on military power to memories of the holocaust, while this may be accurate up to a point it does little to explain the nature of the Israeli state. Israel is a small, densely populated country which means that the Jewish nation lacks strategic depth. Any large sustained conventional attack against the country would be devastating meaning that escalation to a nuclear exchange with another country is unthinkable.
While we may not know at what point an attack against the Iranian nuclear sites will occur we can be sure that Iran will respond. The Iranian military is not very sophisticated nor is it able to project force beyond Iran’s borders, but Tehran has other tools at its disposal. First and foremost is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is a special military force charged with protecting the revolution and supporting the clerical regime. Most notably however, is the training that the IRGC gives to terrorist groups worldwide. By training and funding global terrorism Iran is able to strike at its enemies worldwide as evidenced by attacks as far away as Europe and South America. Perhaps the most notable of Iranian terrorist proxies is the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in terrorist and conventional fighting against Israel. It is highly likely that Hezbollah would be used in the first response to an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran could also use its missile arsenal with conventional warheads to strike directly at Israel, but these missiles have been unreliable and may not be able to penetrate Israel’s missile defense system. In an act of defiance or desperation Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz; an act that would affect 40% of the world’s oil supply. While the Iranians believe that Obama is a weak president such an act in the middle of a tepid global economic recovery would force the U.S. to respond militarily to open the Strait, thus leading to a wider war. These are the current trends, none of which will lead to a desirable conclusion.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Foiled Terror Plots and the Bigger Picture
In the last 24 hours the law enforcement community has made several arrests, and at this point, disrupted three seemingly independent terrorist plots. The U.S. media has been closely following the Denver-New York plot which resulted in the suspect, Najibullah Zazi, being indicted for conspiring to attack the U.S. with a weapon of mass destruction. Details of the plot thus far include:
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.
It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:
Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.
Zazi and others made repeat purchases over the last three months of "large quantities of hydrogen peroxide and acetone products from beauty supply stores in the Denver metropolitan area." This is used to make an explosive known as TATP.
Court documents do not identify any conspirators or targets and shed no light on the scale of Zazi’s intended plot. But, evidence adds to the suspicion that Zazi and his partners were working on developing portable bombs for use against multiple targets.
Investigators searched for up to two dozen suspects and a possible cache of explosive materials in a possible al-Qaeda plot to set off hydrogen-peroxide bombs hidden in backpacks. The FBI said “several individuals in the United States, Pakistan and elsewhere” are being investigated. “
When police on September 14 searched an apartment in Queens that Zazi had visited, they confiscated cell phones and at least nine empty backpacks. The Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people involved backpacks stuffed with explosives that were detonated via cell phones.
Federal counterterrorism officials issued terrorism bulletins which urged law enforcement and private companies to be vigilant at stadiums, entertainment complexes, transit systems and hotels.
Police are being told to watch for any large quantities of hydrogen peroxide, drain cleaner, acetone, or nail polish remover various types of acids and large quantities of ammonia nitrate or urea fertilizer.
It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:
Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, a 19-year-old Jordanian citizen, was arrested by federal authorities who say that Smadi placed an inactive car bomb today at Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper in downtown Dallas.
Michael Finton, also known as Talib Islam, was arrested in Springfield, Illinois, and charged with attempted murder of federal officers or employees and trying to use a weapon of mass destruction, charges that carry a life sentence.
Additionally, two men were arrested last month for attempting to attack a Marine base in North Carolina.
Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.
Monday, September 14, 2009
A U.S. Raid in Somalia
As of this morning both Reuters and the Associated Press are reporting that a small foreign military force launched an attack on militants in the southern Somali city of Baraawe. Current details are sketchy, but the most recent news states that two helicopters originating from an unknown naval ship opened fire on a car killing two and wounding two. Local residents stated that the two wounded men were loaded aboard the aircraft and flown back out to sea. Several sources are also claiming that one of the militants killed was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002.
Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.
Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.
Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.
CIA Map, Text in red is mine
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan
National Geographic Magazine insert
Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.
Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.
Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.
CIA Map, Text in red is mine
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan
National Geographic Magazine insert
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Hezbollah has Chemical Weapons? Not So Fast
The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyasa reported on September 3 that an explosion in southern Lebanon that occurred on July 14, 2009 was a Hezbollah arms depot. Seemingly giving credence to this claim is four days after the explosion the UN observer force trying access the site was blocked by a mob of protesters who then attacked the UN representatives. What made this report stand out was not the fact that the arms depot was a violation of UN Resolution 1701, but the claim that the depot contained chemical weapons.
In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:
Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.
Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.
We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.
In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:
Syrian defence sources told Jane's that during a 26 July (2007) test to weaponise a 500 km 'Scud C' with a mustard gas warhead, an explosion occurred in a laboratory adjacent to a chemical agent storage facility located in a Syrian military camp in Aleppo. The explosion killed 15 Syrian military personnel and "dozens" of Iranian missile weaponisation engineers, the sources said.
"The blast dispersed chemical agents (including VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent) across the storage facility and outside. Other Iranian engineers were seriously injured with chemical burns to exposed body parts not protected by safety overalls."
Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.
Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.
We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Death of Baitullah Mehsud
The death of Baitullah Mehsud has finally been confirmed by the Pakistani Taliban (the Pakistani Taliban is also known by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP). This comes almost a month after the CIA struck Baitullah’s father in law’s compound killing the militant leader and one of his wives. Initially, the U.S. refrained from admitting the target and confirming Baitullah’s death, but the Pakistanis did not possess such qualms. For their part, the TTP continued to claim that Baitullah was not killed in the attack, but was instead ill. Furthermore the Pakistanis were claiming that his death resulted in a shootout during a shura meeting where discussions over Baitullah’s replacement were taking place. It was in the midst of these claims and counter claims that prevented more timely analysis.
What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.
While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.
Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.
*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.
Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.
Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.
What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.
While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.
Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.
*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.
Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.
Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.
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