American al-Qaeda Adam Gadahn Captured

The spokesman for al Qaeda prime, Adam Gadahn, has been arrested in Karachi Pakistan according to sources of both the Associated Press and Reuters. Because Gadahn is known to go by several aliases it is difficult to ascertain at this time if the press reports are indeed accurate. This confusion has led the press to proclaim Gadahn's death in the past only to have the terrorist resurface. For the sake of this article we'll assume the reports are correct.

Since Gadahn began working with al-Qaeda he has released, and probably produced, numerous videos of propaganda value. The usefulness of propaganda by terrorist movements cannot be understated as it helps in recruiting and countering the message of their targets. If Gadahn was as involved in creating these videos as many suspect, his absence will have a significant impact on al Qaeda's ability to spread propaganda effectively. Furthermore, Gadahn released a new video this morning just before his arrest, but we don't know if the two are connected.

Gadahn's arrest comes on the heels of several other arrests of high level Taliban members and it is possible intelligence gathered from those individuals helped in locating Gadahn. Many analysts suspect that members of the Taliban Shura* left the city of Quetta in the Baluchistan province when the U.S. began threatening to expand drone strikes to the area. This threat by the U.S. was never expected to occur as Quetta is densely populated and collateral damage would have been high, but the threat seemed to have forced many operatives to move to a safer location. Indeed, Pakistani news outlets began reporting on a mass influx of Pashtu into Karachi around the same time of the U.S. threats and the subsequent Pakistani military operations in Swat and South Waziristan.

Assuming that Gadahn has information on the whereabouts of other Taliban/al Qaeda members, his detention could have a harmful effect on both movements. Since Gadahn released a video today it is possible that he possess time sensitive information on the location of other wanted individuals, but with the rampant media reports about his detention it may be already too late. With the numerous arrests of other high level Taliban it is likely they will be forced to respond, and historically speaking their response will be violent. This analysis is preliminary and we will continue to follow future developments as they become available.

*The Shura discussed here is the one directly associated with Mullah Omar, the leader of the main Taliban movement.