This is the third in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
The Muslim World is hardly a homogeneous thing, but several issues do grab the attention of Muslims in the Middle East not the least of which is Israel. Foolishly many believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring peace to the Middle East all the while ignoring divisions in Islam and cultural differences between the Arabs, Persians, Kurds, and Turks. This is an ignorance born out of obsession by the West with solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a means of atoning for the UN mandate that created the Jewish state. Perhaps a more pressing conflict, one that will lead to an arms race if not an a larger conflict, is the ongoing feud between the Arabs and the Persians who also happen to largely fall along the Islamic division of Sunni and Shiites with the majority of Arabs adhering to the former and the Persians the latter. In recent times, the current protests in Tehran aside, Iran has been pushing its influence to the far corners of the Middle East while the fractured Arab states strive to counter these moves.
It has become increasingly difficult to discuss Iran without discussing the nuclear program. While Iran has been moving forward in building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium, it must be remembered that this doesn’t automatically translate into a deliverable nuclear warhead. Regardless, both the Arab regimes and the Israelis are not going to wait for Iran to get that far and will take extraordinary measures to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear armed power. These actions currently include the Saudis and Israelis sharing intelligence and assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists. This cooperation challenges the common belief, but Saudi Arabia has its largest Shiite population living in the oil rich eastern desert and Riyadh views this as a weakness within the kingdom. Israel on the other hand fears Iranian weapons and technology being put in the hands of Hezbollah. The Arabs and the Israelis are using intelligence to fight Tehran while Iran fights back by supporting the rogues. The players have shifted alliances, but the game remains the same.
In the midst of the regional maneuvering is the buildup of conventional military forces. The Gulf States having been buying military hardware such as fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems from the United States in preparation for a more aggressive Iran. While these systems may make the Royal families sleep better at night the geography and internal affairs of the Iranian state do not necessarily allow Tehran to pursue foreign matters of the state via conventional military means. Instead Iran has relied primarily on supporting terrorism and spreading the Iranian revolution through Shiite proselytizing throughout the Middle East. This has given the Iranians a bit of street credit among ordinary Muslims regardless of which sect of Islam they belong too. For several decades many Arab nations have spoken about the virtues of jihad while the Iranians are actually acting on the premise. This has severely undermined the Arab nations and their struggle against one another for leadership of Islam hasn’t helped matters either.
In this fight for control of the Muslim conscience it may seem that Iran is on the march, but the Arab states are not without tools of their own – namely Saudi Arabia’s money. The Saudis oil reserves are so vast that when the need strikes the kingdom can raise or undercut oil prices overnight. For nations such as Iran that are dependent on high oil prices Riyadh’s actions can have a devastating effect. This approach has proven more reliable for the Saudi’s then when the support of terrorism in the region was their status quo. This will be a delicate dance between the Arabs and Persians for a little while longer but things will heat up quickly. Most of this fight will be planned in the shadows forcing analysis to be rather general. What we do know is that the Muslim world will do what it does best; turn inward and fight each other.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The Great Unraveling – A New Alliance in the East
This is the second in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.
With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.
It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.
This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.
Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.
In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.
Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.
With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.
It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.
This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.
Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.
In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.
Monday, June 15, 2009
The Great Unraveling - Rise of the Rouges
This is the first in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.
The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.
With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.
In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.
Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.
The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.
With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.
In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dr. Tiller and the Lone Wolf
It was bound to happen sooner or later, but a little over a week ago Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in his church parking lot shortly after the service. Tiller was shot because he was one of a handful of physicians that performed a procedure popularly known as partial birth abortion. This wasn’t the first time Tiller was attacked; in fact, Shelley Shannon managed to shoot Tiller in both arms in 1993 outside of his clinic. Understanding that Tiller was a target doesn’t make the killers actions right, but merely serves to show that physicians that perform abortions are still targets.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
GWOT and Memorial Day
How best to honor those men and women who have given the ultimate sacrifice? As a veteran I have struggled with this ever since I left the military just over two years ago because of a back injury. Many of those with whom I served and befriended are still fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and some areas of Africa. Memorial Day is especially hard. This day has been set aside to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. These individuals fought for the people beside them and will never have the opportunity to return home and embrace their loved ones. This realization is particularly difficult for those that are left behind to carry on the fight.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
Monday, May 18, 2009
When the Tigers Died
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." – Albert Einstein
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Urgent: Petraeus States that the next two weeks are critical to Pakistan’s survival
During a briefing with U.S. administration officials, General David Petraeus stated the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
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