A Recent Spike in Terrorist Activity

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Usama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new communiqué, bin Laden had the following to say:

In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama.

"May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point US intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and state, “This phrase, ‘Peace be upon those who follow guidance,’ appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked.” This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden; however, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to ‘severe’ falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an “unusually high” number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK’s no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. After all, it is doubtful that bin Laden crawled out of his hole just to say hello.