Urgent: Petraeus States that the next two weeks are critical to Pakistan’s survival

During a briefing with U.S. administration officials, General David Petraeus stated the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive.

Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.

This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.

When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.

The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.

The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.

Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.

Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.

Hezbollah in the Sinai

Egyptian security forces have arrested 26 people that may have been a part of a Hezbollah cell in the Sinai Peninsula placed to launch terrorist attacks against tourists and smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The Egyptian government claims that this is only half of the cell and continues security operations in an attempt to apprehend the rest of the group. Hassan Nasrallah – Hezbollah Secretary General – claimed that the cell only numbered ten and was put in place for the sole purpose of smuggling weapons into Gaza. This situation, while meant to boost Hezbollah’s standing prior to Lebanese election and in the Arab world at large, could have the opposite effect. Egypt has seen itself as the leader of the Arab world since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and is looking to reassert itself in the Arab world and stop the spread of Iran’s influence. Right now Tehran’s militant proxy is in the sights of Cairo.

During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.

As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.

This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.

Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.

Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.

Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.

The Binghamton Massacre and the need for an Active Shooter Program

In the last several weeks lone gunman have struck in Oakland, Pittsburg and Binghamton, NY. All of these attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.

The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” Furthermore DHS states:

Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.

It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or other, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places – for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same, so if anybody out there has any questions or would like help developing a plan please contact me. The following links have good information regarding the development of an active shooter program.

DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters

Training Book

Pocket Guide

Poster

Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan. This plan is one of the best templates I've seen for emergency planning for schools.