Feeling the Squeeze

Since the ‘surge’ in Iraq has produced an improved security situation media reports have once again focused on the war in Afghanistan. These reports have painted the Afghan theater as a lost cause that cannot be won or even brought to a palatable conclusion. The media tends to take a one dimensional approach to news coverage and often overlooks the numerous dynamics that are in play. This doesn’t mean that the situation in Afghanistan is rosy however, but before an assessment can be made the situation must be dissected.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, the U.S., and the Taliban are suffering from a prolonged war that has gone on for seven years now. While at the onset of the war on terror 80 percent of al-Qaeda prime was destroyed the core leadership has managed to elude capture and the people in the regions that they are taking refuge are paying the price. Regardless of this success here is the current situation:

In the process of the war Afghanistan has gained a new government, but it is weak and unable to build a consensus among the numerous warlords that call the country home.

The U.S. is looking to draw down troops in Iraq and move several brigade combat teams to the Afghan theater, but troop strength alone will not be enough and the military command knows it.

Pakistan has lost significant influence in Afghanistan, is facing an insurgency at home, and India – their primary adversary – has moved troops and advanced aircraft into Kashmir. India has also invested significantly in Afghanistan thus expanding their influence on two of Pakistan’s borders. Additionally, China has moved troops into the Xinjiang province – which borders Pakistan – to crack down on the Muslim Uyghurs which Islamabad has supported in the past. Though Pakistan and China are occasional allies, China is not happy with the Washington – Islamabad alliance. All told Pakistan is not in good shape.

The Taliban have been getting hammered by the U.S. for seven years, but have managed to survive and occasionally regroup. The Taliban, it should be noted, are not a single homogenous group, but rather several Pashtun tribes that have embraced the Deobandi form of Islam that is the foundation of the Taliban ideology. In essence it would take the defeat or destruction of an entire ethnic group to claim victory over the Taliban. Simply put, that will not happen.

Each player in the Afghan theater is feeling the squeeze and something has to give – soon.

Taliban looking for peace?

Several news reports have claimed that a delegation of Afghan government officials and Afghan Taliban representatives met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the prospect of peace at the behest of Saudi King Abdullah. This comes on the heels of the Afghan president Karzai and some high ranking NATO officers calling for peace negotiations with the Taliban. In spite of the reports both the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban have claimed that a meeting did occur, but there was no discussion of peace or national reconciliation. That being said I doubt that they met to discuss the weather.

Afghanistan needs forge a path towards national reconciliation and that includes that Taliban. Those that are loyal to the Taliban know that they cannot defeat the foreign forces in Afghanistan and waiting for the foreigners to leave while their people suffer from war is not an option either. The only available option is for the government and the Afghan Taliban to come to an accord whether it is politically palatable for the foreign forces or not.

It is interesting to note that the representatives of the Taliban that attended the meeting in Saudi Arabia are either no longer affiliated with the group or have been cast aside. This does not matter however, because the Afghan government and the Taliban have a problem that needs to be solved and a meeting with the most powerful nation in Sunni Islam is a good place to start. The Afghan government has been reaching out to the Saudi’s for some time now and will probably view the meeting as a short term victory – even if they do it silently.

Understandably the U.S. is not happy with the prospect of watching the Afghan government negotiate a peace deal with the faction the Karzai government replaced. While it may not be the best solution from Washington’s standpoint, it is a solution that may become more acceptable should the Taliban decide to split with al-Qaeda. The U.S. could extract itself from the Afghan theater if the top tear of al-Qaeda was killed or captured, but this will only happen when the local population turns against the foreigners.

Pakistan: The perils of a weak government

In my previous article I discussed the increase of U.S. raids into Pakistani territory. While the CIA and Special Forces have been doing this for years, it is only recently that conventional military forces have made incursions into the Tribal Areas of Pakistan. After seven years of the War on Terror, why is this only occurring now? A number of reasons immediately come to mind, such as the war in Iraq, the coming end to the Bush administration, poor intelligence, and perhaps the most overlooked reason – Pakistani politics.

Pakistan has survived so long as the Army survived. Prior to the ouster of President Musharraf, the Army and the government were one in the same and the country was ruled by a single homogonous entity. This is no longer the case. The change came when Western powers pressed Musharraf to give up his direct military role and hold open elections. Musharraf would eventually acquiesce thus pushing the country into chaos. The newly elected Parliament moved quickly to pressure Musharraf into resigning by threatening him with impeachment. This move did not fracture the government per se, but it did fracture the control of the country and has led to competing directives between the Army and the civilian government.

A prime example of this was the decision to bring the Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) under the control civilian control by placing the organization under the Interior Ministry. Two days later the government was forced to recant this declaration claiming that the Army was not given a say in the matter, but the implication was clear – the Army wasn’t going to listen and the government couldn’t do anything about it. It now appears that the Army will make a move to put the government under military influence and not the other way around. It is a similar situation that led to Musharraf seizing control of the government in the first place.

The newly formed democratic government is already in trouble and near bankruptcy. Several countries and institutions have offered aid, but if it doesn’t come soon the government may face social unrest after only a few months in office. Perhaps the most difficult challenge that Pakistan faces is the Taliban insurgency. The Taliban is flush with cash from the poppy crop and has asserted itself more recently in areas of the country that have been traditionally more stable. With India spreading money and influence in Afghanistan and the U.S. engaging in missile strikes inside the FATA on a daily basis, Pakistan could be thrust further into turmoil.

What happens next?

Right now the next move will be made by the U.S., but probably not until the election is over. The U.S. military is planning on a winter offensive to take on Taliban and al-Qaeda that remain in the country during the winter months. Afghanistan is a mountainous country which makes combat during winter months very difficult for poorly equipped light infantry elements such as Taliban and AQ fighters. The U.S. is betting on this and going for the jugular so to speak. During the winter months all logistical support is scaled back because the mountains become impassable from the heavy snow fall. If the U.S. is successful in taking on those elements that do not winter in Pakistan the dynamic of the theater could change. The success of this offensive will not end the war, but it could bring the conclusion closer.