The Mumbai Incident

I have been away the last few weeks because my father passed away. I have been working on another article that discusses the impact of oil prices on counterterrorism efforts and should have that up shortly.

Much has been written in the last few days with regards to the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, so I will keep my comments brief. In my previous article I noted that the Pakistani government is weak and this attack will only add to the pressure they are facing, which in fact may have been part of the motivation to begin with. I will discuss that tactics of the operation later but first I would like to focus on the impending response by the Indian government.

India

India is one of the countries most brutalized by terrorism. In fact, according to an article in the Middle East Times, India has suffered well over 4,000 casualties from terrorism since 2004. Unfortunately that figure is about right. India is in the middle of a political campaign and the controlling party has been accused of being weak on terror, and as such faces a very real possibility of losing the upcoming elections, so a response is imminent.

Pakistan

With the government as weak as it is a coup is a very real possibility. The civilian government is out of money, has very little control over the country, and no control over the military. Speaking of a coup this early in the game is often times laughable, but with the dynamics that are in play Pakistan will inevitably get the shaft. Should India make any conventional incursions into Pakistan proper the military will be forced to respond and I doubt the civilian government can exercise any control over the decision making. If India faces little resistance the only way to stop an invasion would be the threat of using a nuclear weapon – Pakistan has nothing else.

Mumbai – A tactical perspective

The attacks that began Wednesday were carried out professionally, in a coordinated manner, and perhaps most stunningly, only required ten people. The Indian police have put the body count at almost 200 with hundreds more injured. The real story here is the target, however. Mumbai is a tourist destination and a large financial hub. By targeting Mumbai’s five-star hotels the attackers were sure to kill Westerners and hurt the city – and to a larger extent the country – financially.
The attackers only used small arms and explosives, a combination that works well when properly employed. This is the type of attack that keeps me up at night. For instance, think of an attack like this at an American mall or at Wal-Mart during black Friday. There is little that the targeted population can do to protect themselves and there is little the police or security forces can do to prevent it. If you can imagine a large crowd, probably numbering in the hundreds, gathering in the early morning waiting for the store to open when suddenly a suicide bomber detonates his vest – things get ugly really quick. So too did the attacks that struck Mumbai – only this attack is leading to a standoff between two nuclear powers.