Syrian President Bashir al-Assad presented to Turkey 6 points that detail his position of departure in the negotiations during a press conference today. But what has captured the headlines in the Israeli press is al-Assad’s declaration that he will not break off ties to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants. This would seem to contradict my earlier statements regarding Syria no longer wanting to be a rogue regime. On the contrary this statement by al-Assad only reinforces my analysis and represents Syria playing the only card it has in this deal with Tel Aviv – reining in militant factions that present a security threat to Israel.
Here’s how I got there. Syria has only one thing to offer Israel – dismantling Hezbollah and curtailing the activities of militant Palestinians. That being said it makes sense that al-Assad would trumpet this because it would play well in the Israeli press. Additionally, the other major players in this deal – France, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar – would not want a peace deal that allowed a repeat of the Israeli-Hezbollah war of 2006. Such an allowance would make any peace deal ridiculous.
In the face of political problems in Israel it is still apparent that Tel Aviv holds the trump card – the Golan Heights. Israel would never agree to give up Golan without security assurances on its northern border. From Syria’s perspective the return of Golan is necessary for security since Damascus is a mere 30 miles from the current border with Israel.
I have stated before that one should never confuse rhetoric for policy. In this case al-Assad’s statement that he will continue to support Hezbollah and the militant Palestinian factions is an untenable position and he knows it. Damascus desperately needs this peace deal so it can tap into the global economy. Al-Assad needs to grow Syria’s economy so he can stay in power and clinging to the old habits of supporting terrorism would run counter to that goal. Al-Assad’s may be a young leader, but he is not stupid.
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