Bin Laden’s call to attack Pakistan

In the last few weeks surrounding the anniversary of 9/11, al-Qaeda has released several video and audio tapes. This is a substantial increase in propaganda from the leadership of the terror group directed at the western public. Since the invasion of Afghanistan, the al-Qaeda leadership has been limited to making these tapes while many amateurs that are inspired by the same philosophy have been carrying out the actual attacks. This decentralization has marginalized the “old guard” leadership while empowering aspiring jihadists. It appears that bin Laden is worried about losing relevancy in the global jihad and is trying to reassert himself by releasing these video tapes. I should note that many terrorist leaders are mid to upper class, have some higher education, and are very self centered. My personal belief is that the longer a terrorist leader is able to survive the more likely they are to manifest messianic delusions. Using this model it becomes understandable that bin Laden feels the need to remind the jihadist masses that he still matters.

Another reason that bin Laden may feel the need to release these tapes, and more specifically target Pakistan, is the setbacks al-Qaeda has suffered in Algeria and Lebanon. In a video tape released September 11, 2006, Ayman al-Zawahiri approved the merger of the Algerian group Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) into the al-Qaeda global network. The group has since been renamed al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and claimed responsibility for the February 2007 attacks on Algerian police stations. Since the merger decension in the ranks of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has risen and may lead to fracturing of the group. In Lebanon, al-Qaeda attempted to establish a presence to launch attacks against Israel. This group, known as Fatah al-Islam was defeated and ultimately dismantled by the Lebanese army back in June, thus ending what would have been an effective presence in the area. With these two operations going nowhere al-Qaeda has been forced to look for a victory a little closer to the cave and Pakistan is a prime target.

Pakistan is one of the most radical Islamic countries on the face of the earth, and oh by the way, they have nukes. Currently the regime of Pervez Musharraf has managed to stave off some of the attempts by Islamists to either assassinate him or target secular politicians, but this cannot last indefinitely. For instance, most Pakistani children go to madrassah schools rather than public or other secular schools and are thus subjects of radical Islamic indoctrination. That being said the future of Pakistan does not look good. Thus far, the only thing bin Laden’s call to jihad in Pakistan has netted is a few protests, but with the past attempts on Musharraf’s life it is only a matter of time before one is successful. The seizure of Pakistan by radical Islamists would make a great trade for Afghanistan because the U.S. and a few other countries have sold advanced weaponry to the Pakistani military. The amount of radicals coupled with the advanced conventional and nuclear weapons makes Pakistan a highly valued target for bin Laden. This alone should force those of us in the west to heed this latest message.