Foiled Terror Plots and the Bigger Picture

In the last 24 hours the law enforcement community has made several arrests, and at this point, disrupted three seemingly independent terrorist plots. The U.S. media has been closely following the Denver-New York plot which resulted in the suspect, Najibullah Zazi, being indicted for conspiring to attack the U.S. with a weapon of mass destruction. Details of the plot thus far include:
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.

Zazi and others made repeat purchases over the last three months of "large quantities of hydrogen peroxide and acetone products from beauty supply stores in the Denver metropolitan area." This is used to make an explosive known as TATP.

Court documents do not identify any conspirators or targets and shed no light on the scale of Zazi’s intended plot. But, evidence adds to the suspicion that Zazi and his partners were working on developing portable bombs for use against multiple targets.

Investigators searched for up to two dozen suspects and a possible cache of explosive materials in a possible al-Qaeda plot to set off hydrogen-peroxide bombs hidden in backpacks. The FBI said “several individuals in the United States, Pakistan and elsewhere” are being investigated. “

When police on September 14 searched an apartment in Queens that Zazi had visited, they confiscated cell phones and at least nine empty backpacks. The Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people involved backpacks stuffed with explosives that were detonated via cell phones.

Federal counterterrorism officials issued terrorism bulletins which urged law enforcement and private companies to be vigilant at stadiums, entertainment complexes, transit systems and hotels.

Police are being told to watch for any large quantities of hydrogen peroxide, drain cleaner, acetone, or nail polish remover various types of acids and large quantities of ammonia nitrate or urea fertilizer.

It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:

Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, a 19-year-old Jordanian citizen, was arrested by federal authorities who say that Smadi placed an inactive car bomb today at Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper in downtown Dallas.

Michael Finton, also known as Talib Islam, was arrested in Springfield, Illinois, and charged with attempted murder of federal officers or employees and trying to use a weapon of mass destruction, charges that carry a life sentence.

Additionally, two men were arrested last month for attempting to attack a Marine base in North Carolina.

Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.

A U.S. Raid in Somalia

As of this morning both Reuters and the Associated Press are reporting that a small foreign military force launched an attack on militants in the southern Somali city of Baraawe. Current details are sketchy, but the most recent news states that two helicopters originating from an unknown naval ship opened fire on a car killing two and wounding two. Local residents stated that the two wounded men were loaded aboard the aircraft and flown back out to sea. Several sources are also claiming that one of the militants killed was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002.

Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.

Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.

Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.

CIA Map, Text in red is mine

Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan

National Geographic Magazine insert

Hezbollah has Chemical Weapons? Not So Fast

The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyasa reported on September 3 that an explosion in southern Lebanon that occurred on July 14, 2009 was a Hezbollah arms depot. Seemingly giving credence to this claim is four days after the explosion the UN observer force trying access the site was blocked by a mob of protesters who then attacked the UN representatives. What made this report stand out was not the fact that the arms depot was a violation of UN Resolution 1701, but the claim that the depot contained chemical weapons.

In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:

Syrian defence sources told Jane's that during a 26 July (2007) test to weaponise a 500 km 'Scud C' with a mustard gas warhead, an explosion occurred in a laboratory adjacent to a chemical agent storage facility located in a Syrian military camp in Aleppo. The explosion killed 15 Syrian military personnel and "dozens" of Iranian missile weaponisation engineers, the sources said.

"The blast dispersed chemical agents (including VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent) across the storage facility and outside. Other Iranian engineers were seriously injured with chemical burns to exposed body parts not protected by safety overalls."

Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.

Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.

We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.