The Great Unraveling – A New Alliance in the East

This is the second in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.

With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.

It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.

This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.

Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.

In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.

The Great Unraveling - Rise of the Rouges

This is the first in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.

The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.

As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.

With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.

In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.

Dr. Tiller and the Lone Wolf

It was bound to happen sooner or later, but a little over a week ago Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in his church parking lot shortly after the service. Tiller was shot because he was one of a handful of physicians that performed a procedure popularly known as partial birth abortion. This wasn’t the first time Tiller was attacked; in fact, Shelley Shannon managed to shoot Tiller in both arms in 1993 outside of his clinic. Understanding that Tiller was a target doesn’t make the killers actions right, but merely serves to show that physicians that perform abortions are still targets.

In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.

Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.

Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.

Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.