This is the first in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.
Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.
The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.
With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.
In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dr. Tiller and the Lone Wolf
It was bound to happen sooner or later, but a little over a week ago Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in his church parking lot shortly after the service. Tiller was shot because he was one of a handful of physicians that performed a procedure popularly known as partial birth abortion. This wasn’t the first time Tiller was attacked; in fact, Shelley Shannon managed to shoot Tiller in both arms in 1993 outside of his clinic. Understanding that Tiller was a target doesn’t make the killers actions right, but merely serves to show that physicians that perform abortions are still targets.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
In recent years right wing extremists have not managed to rise to the level of prominence that they once enjoyed during the 1980’s and 90’s. The last large scale terrorist attack carried out by a right wing extremist was the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. In 2007 the FBI claimed that right wing extremists were the most active terrorists in the United States although no one was killed and the attacks amounted to little more than property damage. The murder of Tiller is proof that while right wing extremists have not managed to mount a large scale attack, the lone wolf operators that sympathize with the ideology can still be dangerous.
Statistics aside, let’s focus on the facts of the Tiller killing. Apart from Tiller’s notoriety in right wing radical circles average Americans may have heard the name occasionally in the national news, but to the more radical folks this man was the devil incarnate. One newspaper article describes one abortion protestor as thankful that the man was dead. While this is not the norm for most opposed to abortion it is interesting to note the diversity in thought as too the required action to protect the unborn.
Let’s talk about the killer a bit. Police have arrested Scott Roeder a self described abortion opponent that has been known to have contact with the more radical elements of the right wing movement. In the past Roeder has been involved with many activities associated with the anti-tax Freemen movement such as driving without a license plate and avoiding payment of taxes. In many cases these individuals will declare themselves sovereign from the government and will congregate with like minded people that take a more active role in their political beliefs. We know that Roeder was involved with radical groups because of past arrests and declarations made during a custody trial several years ago. Strangely, Roeder has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I don’t mean to say that having schizophrenia is strange, only that we often refer to terrorists as schizos or nut jobs, but in this case we have medical backing. And yes, just in case you were curious, he was off his meds.
Roeder wasn’t the first to target abortion providers and he won’t be the last. Roeder has recently stated that more violence will come and there is little doubt that he is stating the truth. This attack once again shows the need for churches and all places with large gathering to prepare an active shooter program that meets the challenge of hostile wackos. In the mean time, stay safe.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
GWOT and Memorial Day
How best to honor those men and women who have given the ultimate sacrifice? As a veteran I have struggled with this ever since I left the military just over two years ago because of a back injury. Many of those with whom I served and befriended are still fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and some areas of Africa. Memorial Day is especially hard. This day has been set aside to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. These individuals fought for the people beside them and will never have the opportunity to return home and embrace their loved ones. This realization is particularly difficult for those that are left behind to carry on the fight.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
In the ten years I served I had the privilege to serve with some of the most wonderful people I have ever had the opportunity to meet. I want to take this time to ask all of my fellow citizens to take time and remember those who have served and those who continue to serve – if only for a moment.
Meanwhile the War on Terror continues…
"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived." General George S. Patton, Jr.
Monday, May 18, 2009
When the Tigers Died
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." – Albert Einstein
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
The Sri Lankan government officially confirmed that the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Velupillai Prabhakaran, was killed along with most of the top tier leadership of the terrorist group. This is a huge development in one of the longest running insurgencies in Asia. Now comes the hard part – finding a lasting peace between the Singhalese Buddhists and the minority Tamil Hindus.
The LTTE claimed to represent the Tamil population of Sri Lanka while waging its war against the government in Colombo in an effort to establish an independent state in the north of the island. Many Tamils did indeed identify with the Tiger cause, but eventually the LTTE became as oppressive as the government they were fighting causing many Tamils to become disillusioned with the war. In an attempt to compensate for declining popularity the LTTE became more aggressive shortly after 2002 only to have the government respond militarily culminating in the most recent war. In essence the LTTE overplayed its hand and the government called the bluff.
The war may be over, but the problem that the LTTE exploited in their rise to power remains. In the not too distant past the ruling government in Colombo consisted almost exclusively of the Singhalese majority which led to repression of the Tamil minority. During one of the many violent confrontations, a young Prabhakaran watched as some of his family members were beaten to death by government security forces. This episode would serve as Prabhakaran’s justification in founding the Tigers. But as successive case studies of terrorist movements show us, terror is often inflicted upon those that terrorists claim to be defending. Instead of working with other Tamil groups for a separate homeland, Prabhakaran instead chose to eliminate them violently. In fact, any Tamil that was deemed moderate in the struggle was fair game. This indiscriminate violence is what pushed the Tigers from freedom fighters to terrorists in short order.
We must keep in mind that the Tigers are dead, but the Singhalese are still the majority and the Tamils are still the minority on an island that is relatively poor. If Sri Lanka is enjoy any period of peace a political accommodation of the Tamils is necessary; otherwise the Tigers could be resurrected.
It is possible that some hold out members of the Black Tigers (the suicide unit) could launch suicide bombings in a last ditch attempt to cause havoc. Such action is not unprecedented. The outcome for any terrorist group is inevitable, because, as I’ve said before, there is no retirement home for terrorists.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Urgent: Petraeus States that the next two weeks are critical to Pakistan’s survival
During a briefing with U.S. administration officials, General David Petraeus stated the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
Sidebar: Back in December of 2008 I was asked to give an assessment on the viability of the Pakistani government. At that time I stated that if current trends continue the Pakistani government would collapse before the end of 2009. Former advisor to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), David Kilcullen, also made a similar prediction at the end of March 2009 that the government would only last for another 6 months. This would put the failure of the government in about the same time frame. Also, the Joint Forces Command stated in a 2008 report that Pakistan and Mexico are on the verge of becoming failed states.
This is a stunning disclosure by the head of CENTCOM, and not one that would be made lightly. Before we get to the implications of this statement we need to understand the position of the individual who made the comments. First and foremost Gen. Petraeus is a member of the military. He is not a politician, but an individual subject to the wants and needs of the current administration. In other words, Petraeus would not be allowed to make such comments (especially something that would be leaked to the press) without the approval of someone in the administration. This is a statement that the Obama administration wanted out in the open.
When considering this statement it is apparent that things on the ground in Pakistan are worse than thought, or intelligence indicates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, may make a direct move against the government. The TTP is not a homogenous movement, however, but more of an umbrella organization that encompasses several different Taliban movements active in Pakistan. Some members of the TTP have declared their loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar so the recent movements by the TTP could be a signal of organizational consolidation. Currently, the TTP has managed to seize most of the Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which encompasses about 26 million of Pakistan’s 166 million people. The TTP has also increased its presence in Sindh province, especially around Karachi, and have moved within 60 miles of Islamabad – Pakistan’s capital.
The reason for Petraeus giving two weeks as a timeline is unknown. It is doubtful that this is a finite span in which certain actions must come to pass, but it is revealing as to the administration’s view of the precarious situation in Pakistan. It is possible that this is a carefully orchestrated attempt by the administration to put pressure on the Pakistani government to take stronger action against the Taliban. In fact, Petraeus’s statement that "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses," for not dealing with the Taliban would seem to bolster this possibility.
The sources of the statements made by Petraeus went on to say the Pakistani Army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is more capable than the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari which could mean that this disclosure is describing certain activities already in play. Such an admission by administration officials could create serious diplomatic problems between the U.S. and Pakistan under normal circumstances, but if the U.S. administration believes that the civilian government will not survive much longer, the U.S. could be positioning itself to support a new Pakistani government in the event of a military coup.
Right now far too many unanswered questions exist. What is certain is the U.S. administration has lost all faith in Pakistan’s civilian government regardless of what intelligence they might possess as too the intentions of the TTP. Furthermore, the recent demand by Western governments and the acquiescence of Islamabad for an inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is telling. All things considered it does not appear as if the fall of the Pakistani government is going to happen within the next two weeks, but if current trends continue the fall of Islamabad could be on the horizon.
Addendum: Some time ago I wrote that the U.S. has a plan to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a state collapse. The demand for an inspection may have been an attempt by the U.S. to ensure that this plan is still viable. The U.S. would not do this unless they expect things to get ugly.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Hezbollah in the Sinai
Egyptian security forces have arrested 26 people that may have been a part of a Hezbollah cell in the Sinai Peninsula placed to launch terrorist attacks against tourists and smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The Egyptian government claims that this is only half of the cell and continues security operations in an attempt to apprehend the rest of the group. Hassan Nasrallah – Hezbollah Secretary General – claimed that the cell only numbered ten and was put in place for the sole purpose of smuggling weapons into Gaza. This situation, while meant to boost Hezbollah’s standing prior to Lebanese election and in the Arab world at large, could have the opposite effect. Egypt has seen itself as the leader of the Arab world since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and is looking to reassert itself in the Arab world and stop the spread of Iran’s influence. Right now Tehran’s militant proxy is in the sights of Cairo.
During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.
As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.
This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.
Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.
Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.
Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.
During Operation Cast Lead, Iran was rather vocal in condemning not only Israel, but also the Arab nations (Egypt especially) for not intervening. This behavior is, of course, all by design. By supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has usurped the role of supporting the Palestinian fight against Israel. Most of the Arab nations have come to rely solely on rhetoric to support the Palestinian cause while privately doing everything they can to avoid the issue. As far as many Arab nations are concerned the Israeli-Palestinian issue is bad for business. The continued Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the alliance with Iran further exacerbates the issue.
As there usually is in the Great Game more is at play. Europe has become so dependent on Russia for its natural gas that the energy rich nations of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean are looking for ways to cheaply transport natural gas and oil to the Europeans. The big problem right now is Syria. As such, Turkey, which is looking to become a hub for energy transport, is pressing Syria hard for a peace agreement with Israel.
This is where Egypt comes into play. This recent conflict between Egypt and Hezbollah will put additional strain on Syria. Syria has long been a backer of Hezbollah, but is looking for options in the face of economic stagnation due to declining oil production and low petrol prices. This leaves Syria with two choices – put renewed effort into peace talks with Israel in the hopes of luring western investment at the expense of regime stability or maintain the current course of allying with Iran and Hezbollah to prevent the Sunni majority from challenging the Bashir al-Assad’s Alawite rule. Both choices are fraught with risk and can seriously undermine the status quo.
Syria is currently entertaining a peace deal with Israel as it is the better option. Egypt and Turkey, two heavyweights in the Middle East, have been using what political capital they have to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. If energy pipelines were constructed to transit Syria, such a move would serve to boost the Syrian economy, but could expose the regime to risks posed by more fundamental movements within the country who want to continue supporting the Palestinian cause.
Syria’s current ally – Iran – is becoming more isolated internationally because of its nuclear program leaving Damascus wondering if Tehran can continue to provide the support it so desperately needs. By maintaining the status quo, Syria can continue to champion the Palestinian cause which would serve to keep the fundamentalists at bay, but the continued economic instability will also challenge the continuity of the regime. As I have stated before, Syria’s last good strategic option is forging a peace deal with Israel. It may not be what Damascus really wants, but far too many powers – many which share a border with Syria – are aligned against them.
Which brings us back to Hezbollah’s presence in the Sinai. Iran has been trying to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip using Hezbollah and the Sudanese government, but have been foiled every step of the way. An angry Egypt was hardly part of the equation for Tehran, and this move may serve to undermine their interest in the Palestinian territories. What is clear now is Egypt’s interest in prying the Syrian’s away from Iran has been reignited. While many are focused on the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, more than a few eyes are watching the unfolding situation among the Arab nations and how they will respond to Iran. Right now that focus is centered squarely on Damascus.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Binghamton Massacre and the need for an Active Shooter Program
In the last several weeks lone gunman have struck in Oakland, Pittsburg and Binghamton, NY. All of these attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.
The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” Furthermore DHS states:
It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or other, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places – for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same, so if anybody out there has any questions or would like help developing a plan please contact me. The following links have good information regarding the development of an active shooter program.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters
Training Book
Pocket Guide
Poster
Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan. This plan is one of the best templates I've seen for emergency planning for schools.
The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” Furthermore DHS states:
Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.
It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or other, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places – for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same, so if anybody out there has any questions or would like help developing a plan please contact me. The following links have good information regarding the development of an active shooter program.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters
Training Book
Pocket Guide
Poster
Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan. This plan is one of the best templates I've seen for emergency planning for schools.
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