Foiled Terror Plots and the Bigger Picture

In the last 24 hours the law enforcement community has made several arrests, and at this point, disrupted three seemingly independent terrorist plots. The U.S. media has been closely following the Denver-New York plot which resulted in the suspect, Najibullah Zazi, being indicted for conspiring to attack the U.S. with a weapon of mass destruction. Details of the plot thus far include:
On Wednesday, a grand jury in New York handed Zazi a one-count indictment for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction.

Zazi and others made repeat purchases over the last three months of "large quantities of hydrogen peroxide and acetone products from beauty supply stores in the Denver metropolitan area." This is used to make an explosive known as TATP.

Court documents do not identify any conspirators or targets and shed no light on the scale of Zazi’s intended plot. But, evidence adds to the suspicion that Zazi and his partners were working on developing portable bombs for use against multiple targets.

Investigators searched for up to two dozen suspects and a possible cache of explosive materials in a possible al-Qaeda plot to set off hydrogen-peroxide bombs hidden in backpacks. The FBI said “several individuals in the United States, Pakistan and elsewhere” are being investigated. “

When police on September 14 searched an apartment in Queens that Zazi had visited, they confiscated cell phones and at least nine empty backpacks. The Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people involved backpacks stuffed with explosives that were detonated via cell phones.

Federal counterterrorism officials issued terrorism bulletins which urged law enforcement and private companies to be vigilant at stadiums, entertainment complexes, transit systems and hotels.

Police are being told to watch for any large quantities of hydrogen peroxide, drain cleaner, acetone, or nail polish remover various types of acids and large quantities of ammonia nitrate or urea fertilizer.

It appears that law enforcement has this case well in hand. The other plots that have unraveled are:

Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, a 19-year-old Jordanian citizen, was arrested by federal authorities who say that Smadi placed an inactive car bomb today at Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper in downtown Dallas.

Michael Finton, also known as Talib Islam, was arrested in Springfield, Illinois, and charged with attempted murder of federal officers or employees and trying to use a weapon of mass destruction, charges that carry a life sentence.

Additionally, two men were arrested last month for attempting to attack a Marine base in North Carolina.

Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture.

A U.S. Raid in Somalia

As of this morning both Reuters and the Associated Press are reporting that a small foreign military force launched an attack on militants in the southern Somali city of Baraawe. Current details are sketchy, but the most recent news states that two helicopters originating from an unknown naval ship opened fire on a car killing two and wounding two. Local residents stated that the two wounded men were loaded aboard the aircraft and flown back out to sea. Several sources are also claiming that one of the militants killed was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002.

Still at large in Africa is Abu Talha Al-Sudani and Fazul Adballah Muhammad. Both of these men are known to have participated in the 1998 embassy bombings and are currently acting as al-Qaeda’s representatives to the local al-Qaeda node al-Shabab.

Multiple foreign navies are operating in the waters off of Somalia in an attempt to stem the threat of piracy, but only a few have the capabilities and the desire to launch such an attack. Furthermore, the intelligence required to execute such a precise mission would have required resources far in excess of many of the participants in the counter-piracy mission.

Update: NBC is reporting that this raid was conducted by U.S. Special Forces. If this is indeed accurate it is indicative of a significant intelligence victory in the war of terror. Currently, U.S. Special Forces in the region operate out of Djibouti, but they could not have carried out this attack without some sort of naval support. Djibouti borders Somalia to the north while the attack took place in the southern reaches of the African horn which is well beyond the range of the suspected aircraft involved. The U.S. is known it use forward operating bases in neighboring Ethiopia, but eyewitness accounts have the U.S. aircraft coming from and returning to the sea.

CIA Map, Text in red is mine

Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan

National Geographic Magazine insert

Hezbollah has Chemical Weapons? Not So Fast

The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyasa reported on September 3 that an explosion in southern Lebanon that occurred on July 14, 2009 was a Hezbollah arms depot. Seemingly giving credence to this claim is four days after the explosion the UN observer force trying access the site was blocked by a mob of protesters who then attacked the UN representatives. What made this report stand out was not the fact that the arms depot was a violation of UN Resolution 1701, but the claim that the depot contained chemical weapons.

In the last few years it has become difficult to discuss the existence of chemical weapons in the Middle East because of the pre-Iraq war intelligence claims. The case of Syria, one of Hezbollah’s benefactors, is quite different. In fact, Jane’s Intelligence reported:

Syrian defence sources told Jane's that during a 26 July (2007) test to weaponise a 500 km 'Scud C' with a mustard gas warhead, an explosion occurred in a laboratory adjacent to a chemical agent storage facility located in a Syrian military camp in Aleppo. The explosion killed 15 Syrian military personnel and "dozens" of Iranian missile weaponisation engineers, the sources said.

"The blast dispersed chemical agents (including VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent) across the storage facility and outside. Other Iranian engineers were seriously injured with chemical burns to exposed body parts not protected by safety overalls."

Given this information, along with a multitude of other nongovernment sources, it is clear that Syria does indeed maintain a chemical weapons capability. This does not mean however that Syria would then give these weapons to Hezbollah. While it is widely known that both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah with money and arms it is unlikely that either country would want to lose direct control over this kind of special weaponry. We can safely assume that if Hezbollah possessed, then used chemical weapons against Israel that the retaliation against Syria and Iran would be substantial. Just like current U.S. policy, Israel does not differentiate between chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. An attack against the Jewish state with a weapon of mass destruction would invite a nuclear retaliation; something that neither Iran nor Syria would want to invite.

Furthermore, excerpts from the UN investigation into the explosion do not make any mention of the presence of chemical weapons. The chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess are persistent, meaning that any release could remain in the area depending on weather patterns. Since the variety of reports on the incident do not mention any inspectors exhibiting any ill effects from the site investigation it is unlikely that chemical weapons were present.

We must keep in mind that while the possibility of Hezbollah procuring chemical weapons from Syria is remote the Middle East arms race taking place between the Arab nations and the Iranian-Syrian alliance could always prompt a change in policy in the near future. In this case only time will tell.

The Death of Baitullah Mehsud

The death of Baitullah Mehsud has finally been confirmed by the Pakistani Taliban (the Pakistani Taliban is also known by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP). This comes almost a month after the CIA struck Baitullah’s father in law’s compound killing the militant leader and one of his wives. Initially, the U.S. refrained from admitting the target and confirming Baitullah’s death, but the Pakistanis did not possess such qualms. For their part, the TTP continued to claim that Baitullah was not killed in the attack, but was instead ill. Furthermore the Pakistanis were claiming that his death resulted in a shootout during a shura meeting where discussions over Baitullah’s replacement were taking place. It was in the midst of these claims and counter claims that prevented more timely analysis.

What we do know now is that the U.S., Pakistan, and the TTP have all admitted that Baitullah is indeed dead. The multiple factions that make up the TTP have met and named Hakeemullah Mehsud as the new emir, or leader. Speaking with the AFP Hakeemullah stated, "Now the shura (meeting of elders) has unanimously appointed me as new amir (head) of Tehreek-e-Taliban... We will take revenge and soon. We will give our reply to this drone attack to America." Indeed, Hakeemullah is following in his predecessors footsteps by threatening to attack the U.S. domestically; however Baitullah never succeeded. In the midst of the upheaval that has occurred within the TTP as a result of the loss of their leader, an attack in the short term is unlikely. It is not unreasonable however to believe that Hakeemullah may attempt an attack to prove his capability as leader. In the near term we can expect an uptick in suicide attacks across Pakistan.

While the reporting in the last month on the matter of Baitullah’s death has been plentiful, the strike has not been analyzed from an intelligence perspective, or more accurately a counterintelligence perspective. The U.S. had on multiple occasions tried to kill Baitullah although most of his attacks were against the Pakistani state. It is true that Baitullah was part of the larger Taliban movement and did contribute to the Afghan insurgency, but his death would not have changed anything in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan his absence would certainly be felt. The Pakistanis of course know this and would have used their intelligence assets in the region to pinpoint Baitullah’s location, but it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. took him out and not the Pakistanis who have the motivation and assets in the region to do it. It appears that this was not a matter of ability, but for the Pakistanis a matter of proving to the U.S. that the intelligence the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) provides is accurate. In the rocky relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan this level of cooperation can be used be used to shore up a rather fractured foundation.

Another matter of this operation for consideration is the asset that gave away Baitullah’s position in the first place. When an asset is in place, intelligence agencies will strive to maintain that connection thus begging the question of why operations of the both the Pakistanis and the U.S. have been relatively quiet. The most that has taken place is a drone strike on the Haqqani network and a feeble attempt by the Pakistani government to spread disinformation about the aftermath of Baitullah’s death*. Without continuing pressure on the TTP, a mole hunt will ensue which will compromise not only the asset, but continuing intelligence operations making the strike on Baitullah all for not.

*Since it was the Pakistanis making most of the noise immediately following the strike on Baitullah it leads me to believe that this was a Pakistani operation even if it was the CIA that pulled the trigger.


Aside: Baitullah Mehsud was the man who ordered the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Following below is a transcript of an intercepted phone call in which the assassination is discussed.

Baitullah Mehsud, who is referred to as Emir Sahib, and another man identified as a Maulvi Sahib, or Mr. Cleric.
Maulvi Sahib: Peace be on you.
Mehsud: Peace be on you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: How are you Emir Sahib?
Mehsud: Fine.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations. I arrived now tonight.
Mehsud: Congratulations to you, too.
Maulvi Sahib: They were our men there.
Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There were Saeed, the second was Badarwala Bilal and Ikramullah was also there.
Mehsud: The three did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Mehsud: Then congratulations to you again.
Maulvi: Where are you? I want to meet with you?
Mehsud: I am in Makin. Come I am at Anwar Shah's home.
Maulvi Sahib: OK I will come.
Mehsud: Do not inform their family presently.
Maulvi Sahib: Right.
Mehsud: It was a spectacular job. They were very brave boys who killed her.
Maulvi Sahib: Praise be to God. I will give you more details when I come.
Mehsud: I will wait for you. Congratulations once again.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations to you as well.
Mehsud: Any service?
Mauvliv: Thank you very much?
Mehsud: Peace be on you.
Maulvi: Same to you.

The Great Unraveling – The Muslim World Looks Inward

This is the third in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

The Muslim World is hardly a homogeneous thing, but several issues do grab the attention of Muslims in the Middle East not the least of which is Israel. Foolishly many believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring peace to the Middle East all the while ignoring divisions in Islam and cultural differences between the Arabs, Persians, Kurds, and Turks. This is an ignorance born out of obsession by the West with solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a means of atoning for the UN mandate that created the Jewish state. Perhaps a more pressing conflict, one that will lead to an arms race if not an a larger conflict, is the ongoing feud between the Arabs and the Persians who also happen to largely fall along the Islamic division of Sunni and Shiites with the majority of Arabs adhering to the former and the Persians the latter. In recent times, the current protests in Tehran aside, Iran has been pushing its influence to the far corners of the Middle East while the fractured Arab states strive to counter these moves.

It has become increasingly difficult to discuss Iran without discussing the nuclear program. While Iran has been moving forward in building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium, it must be remembered that this doesn’t automatically translate into a deliverable nuclear warhead. Regardless, both the Arab regimes and the Israelis are not going to wait for Iran to get that far and will take extraordinary measures to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear armed power. These actions currently include the Saudis and Israelis sharing intelligence and assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists. This cooperation challenges the common belief, but Saudi Arabia has its largest Shiite population living in the oil rich eastern desert and Riyadh views this as a weakness within the kingdom. Israel on the other hand fears Iranian weapons and technology being put in the hands of Hezbollah. The Arabs and the Israelis are using intelligence to fight Tehran while Iran fights back by supporting the rogues. The players have shifted alliances, but the game remains the same.

In the midst of the regional maneuvering is the buildup of conventional military forces. The Gulf States having been buying military hardware such as fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems from the United States in preparation for a more aggressive Iran. While these systems may make the Royal families sleep better at night the geography and internal affairs of the Iranian state do not necessarily allow Tehran to pursue foreign matters of the state via conventional military means. Instead Iran has relied primarily on supporting terrorism and spreading the Iranian revolution through Shiite proselytizing throughout the Middle East. This has given the Iranians a bit of street credit among ordinary Muslims regardless of which sect of Islam they belong too. For several decades many Arab nations have spoken about the virtues of jihad while the Iranians are actually acting on the premise. This has severely undermined the Arab nations and their struggle against one another for leadership of Islam hasn’t helped matters either.

In this fight for control of the Muslim conscience it may seem that Iran is on the march, but the Arab states are not without tools of their own – namely Saudi Arabia’s money. The Saudis oil reserves are so vast that when the need strikes the kingdom can raise or undercut oil prices overnight. For nations such as Iran that are dependent on high oil prices Riyadh’s actions can have a devastating effect. This approach has proven more reliable for the Saudi’s then when the support of terrorism in the region was their status quo. This will be a delicate dance between the Arabs and Persians for a little while longer but things will heat up quickly. Most of this fight will be planned in the shadows forcing analysis to be rather general. What we do know is that the Muslim world will do what it does best; turn inward and fight each other.

The Great Unraveling – A New Alliance in the East

This is the second in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

Lost in the obsessive coverage of the Iranian elections is the move by Vietnam to purchase 6 diesel electric Kilo class submarines and several aircraft from the Russians. On the surface this agreement appears to be nothing more than a routine purchase of military hardware. However, when placed in context of territorial water disputes with China a new dynamic reveals itself. All nations look to use military means not only to provide security, but to push its foreign policy far beyond its borders to support economic growth. China, which lives and dies by its cheap exports, is certainly no different. It is for precisely this reason that Chinas military expansion is quickly putting the Asian giant on a crash course with most of its neighbors.

With the world’s third largest economy and the world’s largest population China is moving forward at a breakneck pace trying to modernize its military so it can protect the trade routes that Beijing lives by. As such, China is looking to create a navy that can dominate in all bordering seas and even in places such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The communist country is also looking to expand is water claims clear into the backyards of many neighboring nations in an attempt to secure energy exploration rights. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India in concert with lesser powers such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia are having none of it.

It comes as no surprise to many that China is the most active nation engaged in espionage against the U.S. What does come as a surprise is that number two is India and number three is South Korea. These two nations do not engage in espionage against the U.S. for nefarious means but rather do so to augment legally purchased American military technology. The aggressive moves by China explain this. This maneuvering by China has caused nations that have little more than warm relations to consider taking defense cooperation to the next level. This doesn’t, and probably will not, result in a creation of an East Asian version of NATO, but it will force nations that feel threatened by China to reach out to one another. For many East Asian nations the U.S. has long been regarded as the main security provider, but in a busy and violent world these nations are starting to rely on assets that are a little closer to home.

This of course will lead to a standoff of sorts; not all that different from a Cold War. What we can expect to see in the not too distant future is the use of rogue actors by the nations involved to keep their adversaries of balance. In the face of excessive military power the cost and duration of a war becomes counterproductive making the use of rogues all the more attractive. For Beijing, using North Korea to intimidate Japan and South Korea all the while using rogues in the east, such as the Naxalites against India, is a cheap and nonconfrontational way to keep the other powers busy. Of course, India can respond by sowing unrest in the Chinese provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang while Japan and South Korea instigate independence movements in Taiwan.

Currently, the East Asian nations have been cooperating to alleviate the fallout from the global recession by working through The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, by pooling money to help member nations that have been hit hardest. In an attempt to avoid conflict nations will use diplomacy and common goals to put off what may be inevitable. In this case China must take measures to ensure that its economy stays strong even at the expense of good relations, but the reality is that Beijing’s need to stay strong will put it at odds with its neighbors. This is the crisis of East Asia.

In the next article, the Muslim World Turns Inward, we'll explore the conflict between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.

The Great Unraveling - Rise of the Rouges

This is the first in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

Every so often in history the global powers realign and begin the great game anew. We are now well into the next match. In the midst of all of this small powers, or even non-state movements, take advantage of the global woes and assert themselves in ways that are frowned upon by the global community, and yet, because of economic hardships or rotten ideologies taking hold of a more advanced country the great powers cannot respond. The response to the second North Korean nuclear test is such an example. Recently, new sanctions were levied against the hermit country, but without the great powers putting resources into their enforcement they are doomed to fail.

The aforementioned allusion to non-state movements was certainly not an accident. Globally there are 70 conflicts taking place and the majority of these involve non-state movements running amok and challenging the global systems. Everywhere from the Pakistan-Taliban war to the Chad-Sudan war, it is the non-state movements that are using the preoccupation with the global recession to assert themselves without fear of retribution. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.

As the global powers shift alliances and look for ways to move from the current recession they will soon turn their full attention to dealing with these non-state movements. Some powers will use diplomacy in an attempt to deal with the problem while others will either support the rogues in an attempt to turn the game in their favor or simply stonewall any meaningful action. China does this constantly when North Korea acts up. This is why nothing has ever been accomplished in disarming Pyongyang. In fact, the attention of the Western world can be captivated through several means. These include terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Israel, and economics. Creating a crisis in any of these areas is a good way to deflect attention and keep the Westerners busy. North Korea supplies missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iran to refocus Western attention elsewhere. If Hezbollah were to use these weapons Israel would respond thus garnering the world’s attention while North Korea and Iran have time to focus their energy elsewhere without fear of Western led reprisals.

With the post election violence in Iran it is reasonable to expect a crisis somewhere in the world to deflect attention while Tehran puts down the insurrection. North Korea on the other hand is rumored to be prepping for another nuclear test. It will be interesting to see where the next manufactured crisis takes place.

In the next article, New East Asian Allies, we’ll discuss the new alignment taking place in East Asia in an attempt to contain China. In this case the rogues will play a starring role.