The Great Unraveling – The Muslim World Looks Inward

This is the third in a series exploring the realignment of the world powers and the potential for conflict.

The Muslim World is hardly a homogeneous thing, but several issues do grab the attention of Muslims in the Middle East not the least of which is Israel. Foolishly many believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring peace to the Middle East all the while ignoring divisions in Islam and cultural differences between the Arabs, Persians, Kurds, and Turks. This is an ignorance born out of obsession by the West with solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a means of atoning for the UN mandate that created the Jewish state. Perhaps a more pressing conflict, one that will lead to an arms race if not an a larger conflict, is the ongoing feud between the Arabs and the Persians who also happen to largely fall along the Islamic division of Sunni and Shiites with the majority of Arabs adhering to the former and the Persians the latter. In recent times, the current protests in Tehran aside, Iran has been pushing its influence to the far corners of the Middle East while the fractured Arab states strive to counter these moves.

It has become increasingly difficult to discuss Iran without discussing the nuclear program. While Iran has been moving forward in building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium, it must be remembered that this doesn’t automatically translate into a deliverable nuclear warhead. Regardless, both the Arab regimes and the Israelis are not going to wait for Iran to get that far and will take extraordinary measures to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear armed power. These actions currently include the Saudis and Israelis sharing intelligence and assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists. This cooperation challenges the common belief, but Saudi Arabia has its largest Shiite population living in the oil rich eastern desert and Riyadh views this as a weakness within the kingdom. Israel on the other hand fears Iranian weapons and technology being put in the hands of Hezbollah. The Arabs and the Israelis are using intelligence to fight Tehran while Iran fights back by supporting the rogues. The players have shifted alliances, but the game remains the same.

In the midst of the regional maneuvering is the buildup of conventional military forces. The Gulf States having been buying military hardware such as fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems from the United States in preparation for a more aggressive Iran. While these systems may make the Royal families sleep better at night the geography and internal affairs of the Iranian state do not necessarily allow Tehran to pursue foreign matters of the state via conventional military means. Instead Iran has relied primarily on supporting terrorism and spreading the Iranian revolution through Shiite proselytizing throughout the Middle East. This has given the Iranians a bit of street credit among ordinary Muslims regardless of which sect of Islam they belong too. For several decades many Arab nations have spoken about the virtues of jihad while the Iranians are actually acting on the premise. This has severely undermined the Arab nations and their struggle against one another for leadership of Islam hasn’t helped matters either.

In this fight for control of the Muslim conscience it may seem that Iran is on the march, but the Arab states are not without tools of their own – namely Saudi Arabia’s money. The Saudis oil reserves are so vast that when the need strikes the kingdom can raise or undercut oil prices overnight. For nations such as Iran that are dependent on high oil prices Riyadh’s actions can have a devastating effect. This approach has proven more reliable for the Saudi’s then when the support of terrorism in the region was their status quo. This will be a delicate dance between the Arabs and Persians for a little while longer but things will heat up quickly. Most of this fight will be planned in the shadows forcing analysis to be rather general. What we do know is that the Muslim world will do what it does best; turn inward and fight each other.