The attempted bombing of a U.S. bound flight has brought the three-front war in Yemen to the forefront. Almost a year ago now, two former inmates of the Guantanamo military prison in Cuba resurfaced in Yemen as leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). While this was an interesting development, what is more important to note is that AQAP has managed to survive and is now operating in Yemen as opposed to Saudi Arabia. About a year and a half ago I stated that it was possible for AQAP in Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen to facilitate moving of arms, people, and launching attacks in the future. This is indeed occurring, but the al-Qaeda affiliates have decided to merge instead of maintaining autonomy. This has occurred for two reasons. The first is that Saudi Arabia encouraged these radicals to go to Iraq and fight the U.S., but when they tried to return they were persona non grata. The second reason is that Yemen is far more conducive to terrorist operations because of the deteriorating of the security environment and the proximity to another al-Qaeda entity in Somalia.
Understanding YemenYemen occupies the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. This area is a geographically strategic area that facilitated trade between the sub-Saharan empires of Africa with the fluctuating empires coming from Asia prior to being conquered by the Ethiopian Empire and then by the Persians. Yemen would eventually follow suit with the rest of the Arabian Peninsula and undergo a forced conversion to Islam led by the Prophet Muhammad. In the 9th century A.D., the al-Zaydi tribe of Mesopotamia migrated and settled in the mountainous region of western Yemen around the ancient city of Sa’dah. The al- Zaydi tribe would eventually bring the indigenous tribes under their full control thus expanding their territory all the way to the Red Sea, but failing to secure the entirety of the southwest Arabian plateau. Several centuries later in 1517 the Ottoman Turks would conquer Yemen leading to occasional self rule until the Empire’s fall at the close of World War I.
Technically Yemen was an independent country after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, but several areas were actually occupied and administered by the British with the port city of Aden being the most visible. Once World War I ended, Yemen once again became an Imamate with areas under British control tied loosely together under the aegis of the Protectorate of South Arabia while the rest of the country was ruled by the Imam Yahya. Yemen would suffer from several civil wars from 1914 to 1994 both in the context of an occupying power and the ideological struggles of the Cold War. Following independence, Yemen struggled to forge a new identity and maintained an Imamate government that ruled until 1962 when the last Royalist was deposed by military officers that championed the Arab socialist movement headed by Egypt’s Nasser. At the time of the military coup, Nasser was looking to solidify his position as leader of the pan-Arab movement and nearby Yemen appeared to be fertile ground not only for spreading the revolution, but also keeping Saudi Arabia – the competing leader of the Arab world – off balance. Nasser did not waste any time sending Egyptian troops into Yemen to prop up the new government once the coup was initiated. As expected, Saudi Arabia did not take this development lightly.
The resulting civil war was fought by the Nasser backed socialists and the Saudi/Western backed Royalists. The Egyptian military soon found themselves the target of Royalist insurgents and fighters from the al Zaydi tribe that would last 5 long years and cost Egypt a military defeat in two theaters; one in Yemen and the other by Israel in the 1967 war. While the Royalist movement forced Egypt to withdraw militarily lasting divisions among the Yemeni people were drawn. With the involvement of western powers fighting a socialist movement, the Soviet Union felt compelled to move in and facilitate a Marxist movement among the remaining socialists that would divide the Yemeni state in two. The Royalists won the war against Egypt, but lost the war for a unified Yemen.
The division of Yemen significantly weakened an already poor state. The limited resources were now divided between the two states and subsequently were poorly managed. In 1989, the governments of North and South Yemen came to a compromise which resulted in unification the next year, but the damage to the economy was done. By 1994, Southern secessionists angry over wealth distribution and government corruption were once again challenging the government leading to yet another civil war. Government forces under the leadership of President Ali Abdallah Salih eventually won, but the secessionist movement in the south would not go away. Since the end of the 1994 war, the national government in Sana’a has been continually fighting the secessionists in the south and the Houthi faction of the Zaydi tribe in the north. In the midst of all of this President Salih used international militants, including al-Qaeda, to fight a war of attrition against both movements. Unfortunately for Salih, al-Qaeda had an agenda of its own.
Yemen’s Three-Front WarYemen’s current war is certainly a challenge for the Arab state. The secessionists in the south have been protesting as usual and fortunately for Sana’a the violence has been relatively small. The Houthi rebellion in the north on the other hand is quite severe. The Houthi’s have managed to ambush and even defeat armed engagements with the Yemeni military primarily because of outside assistance. The insurgency has gotten so bad that Saudi Arabia, a nation that usually does not engage in direct combat, has sent troops across the border into Yemen to aid their southern neighbor. Further complicating matters is Hezbollah has sent fighters from Lebanon to aid the Houthi’s at the behest of Iran turning what was once a manageable rebellion into a full fledged proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran.*
In its usual style, al-Qaeda has done what it can to exploit the situation. After the two al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula nodes merged jihadists from Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, and Somalia began showing up for training and recruiting. In fact, some of the Somali suicide bombers have trained in Yemen and have definitely benefited from the wealth of experience from combat veterans. Thus, it is no surprise that the suspect that attempted to bomb a U.S. airliner trained in Yemen. In light of the failed attempt Yemeni counterterrorist units have targeted al-Qaeda militants operating in the eastern part of the country. Unfortunately, with military units fighting that Houthi’s in the north and keeping the peace with the secessionists in the south, a prolonged campaign against al-Qaeda faces some significant challenges. Indeed, the situation is dire.
The Way ForwardIt is highly unlikely that the U.S. would participate overtly in any campaign against al-Qaeda in Yemen. Not only does the U.S. have multiple priorities, but Yemen is unlikely to accept any non-Arab support in any conventional operation. This does not mean however, that the U.S. will be excluded. In the last ten years the U.S. has taken an on again off again interest in Yemen starting with the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Since then the U.S. has used unmanned aircraft and naval support in targeting militants without using a substantial ground presence, although Special Forces have gone in into Yemen proper. If Washington truly feels a need to increase its involvement in Yemen it has the tools to do it. Currently the U.S. has a large military and intelligence presence in Djibouti and Saudi Arabia that are more than capable of handling sensitive, covert missions throughout the region.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is not a jihadist startup by any stretch of the imagination. It is highly likely that the more experienced members will flee to Somalia if they feel threatened and shack up with al-Shabaab. After all, these militants have done so before when they left Iraq and Afghanistan. When all is said and done the U.S. and its allies cannot completely eliminate the jihadist threat, but they can make al-Qaeda’s ability to operate and survive very difficult indeed.
*Multiple news outlets have claimed that evidence of foreign assistance in the Houthi rebellion is lacking. When looking for information from traditional news sources this may be true; however intelligence contacts in several Middle East nations have confirmed that foreign aid from Hezbollah and Iran has made it to Yemen. In fact, Hezbollah has lost several members as a result of fighting in Northern Yemen as detailed on their website. 
