Monday, December 21, 2009

Iran Moves to a War Footing

While the bulk of this article will be about recent Iranian moves, we will start with Israel. When it was leaked to the press that Israeli PM Netanyahu confronted the Russians with a list of scientists helping the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon a small but important statement was overlooked. In the article former assistant defense minister Ephraim Sneh stated that, “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike – if we are left alone, we will act alone.” This is an interesting, and yet strange statement because, if true, it could serve to undermine the element of surprise necessary for an attack to be carried out. It appears that statement was made not to warn of an impending strike, but rather to force the U.S. to push harder for sanctions.

Dr. Ephraim Sneh is a career politician who currently does not hold any official office or position within the current government which begs the question, why would Sneh be the one to issue such a forceful statement? The best reason for this may be because Sneh is not a part of the current government. This would allow the Israelis to issue a threat with deniability; after all Israel is a small country and politicians still retain certain power even if they do not hold an official position. Furthermore, the target of this statement may not be Iran, but rather the U.S. Israel was promised that if diplomacy failed the U.S. would lead the charge to implement crippling sanctions against Iran, or more precisely, sanctions against Iranian gasoline imports. Currently, Iran is a net importer of gasoline because the country lacks the refining capability needed to convert domestically produced crude oil into commercial gasoline.

But there is a severe problem with this plan. The UN Security Council would have to vote unanimously to implement sanctions that would work. Two permanent members, Russia and China, have already stated they would vote against such a measure. The U.S. and Europe could implement the sanctions unilaterally, but Russia could singlehandedly provide Iran with all the gasoline it needs very easily making unilateral sanctions useless. It would appear that if the current attempts at diplomacy fail, an Israeli strike would be inevitable.

This may serve to explain current Iranian activities. Recently, Iran trained 250 Hezbollah paramilitary members on several missile systems in the event of war with Israel. These missiles have a longer range and should be able to strike most cities in the Jewish state. Making matters worse is a report from the Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida which states that Syria recently moved one quarter of its medium and long range missile arsenal to Lebanon. Coming on the heels of all of this is the Iranian incursion into Iraq which clearly shows that Iran will not wait around to be hit militarily or by sanctions. Iran is very publically moving to a war footing.

Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran have not publicly given any clear indication as to what would force armed conflict, but what is known is that diplomacy is failing rapidly. The December 25 date may be political theater, but then again with Iran preparing for war Israel may be forced to act sooner rather than later. These activities only serve to leave the U.S. in the cold and at the mercy of other nations to determine when and where a conflict will occur. Whatever the outcome neither bodes well for any country involved.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Somali Connection

"We judge the terrorist threat to US interests in East Africa, primarily from Al Qaida and Al Qaida-affiliated Islamic extremists in Somalia and Kenya, will increase in the next year as Al Qaida's East Africa network continues to plot operations against U.S., Western, and local targets and the influence of the Somalia-based terrorist group Al Shabaab grows. Given the high-profile U.S. role in the region and its perceived direction-in the minds of Al Qaida and local extremists-of foreign intervention in Somalia, we assess U.S. counterterrorism efforts will be challenged not only by the Al Qaida operatives in the Horn, but also by Somali extremists and increasing numbers of foreign fighters supporting Al Shabaab's efforts."

National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, March 20, 2009


Back in September I discussed a U.S. raid in the southern Somali city of Baraawe in which several members of al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab were either killed or captured. It is believed that the target of the raid was Kenya-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who is wanted in connection with the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and a plot that resulted in a car bomb attack against an Israeli owned hotel accompanied with an attempted missile attack against an Israeli airliner in 2002. A short two months later al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, Saleh al-Somali, was killed in a U.S. air strike on the Pakistani village of Aspangla. These two strikes show that the U.S. has a much better understanding of al-Qaeda’s structure and operations than previously thought and bin Laden and gang are relying on the African jihadists to carry on global operations.

Indeed, this is following al-Qaeda’s pattern of creating or co-opting terrorist groups indigenous to the region in which they wish to operate. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been replacing members that have been killed or captured with local elements especially Afghans, Pakistanis, and Uzbeks. Perhaps most notably is the recent discovery of an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan that is primarily comprised of Caucasian Germans. Of course the recruiting and training doesn’t end there because al-Qaeda knows better than to place all of its eggs in one basket. In fact, bin Laden’s current focus is on Yemen and Somalia.

Yemen and Somalia are falling apart. Yemen is currently fighting Houthi rebels in the north, combating a growing secessionist movement in the south all the while dealing with a resurgent al-Qaeda throughout the country. Somalia has been in a state of war since the central government ceased to be in the early 90’s. Since then the country has been steadily taken over by Islamist elements just as fundamental in belief as the Taliban. In fact, the Islamic Courts Union did indeed seize power over much of the country before being pushed out by Ethiopian troops backed by U.S. air power a few short years ago. Al-Qaeda’s wing in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has proven to be an adept militant group preventing any faction or tribe from solidifying power in the African country. Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been working closely with al-Shabaab and steadily rebuilding since being forced out of Saudi Arabia. Both groups are far from being classified as start-ups and are being run by experienced militants that have fought in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

This is what has made the two U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda bigwig militants with a Somali connection so interesting. It has been known for some time that al-Qaeda has been moving its ethic Arab members out of South Asia and back into the Middle East and Africa. This behavior is indicative of all terrorist groups; they tend to follow the path of least resistance. Unfortunately for al-Qaeda, they are running out of people and places to go.